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<p>The relocation of the capital of Indonesia to East Kalimantan has introduced a policy restricting the expansion of mining business permits as part of the sustainable development agenda. While aligned with long-term environmental and governance objectives, this policy generates potential risks for government institutions, industry, and local communities. This study applied the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with Fuzzy AHP to identify and prioritize these strategic risks. A hierarchical framework was constructed based on four main criteria—economic, regulatory, social and environmental—further elaborated into 21 sub-criteria validated through literature review and expert consultation. The sub-criteria were derived using a multi-stage process involving literature synthesis and expert judgment to establish content validity prior to the AHP–Fuzzy AHP analysis. Data were collected via structured expert questionnaires and analyzed using triangular fuzzy number weighting and ratio consistency testing. The results indicated that economy risks, particularly reduced investment and rising compliance costs, hold the highest priority weight (0.302), followed by social risk (0.274) and regulation risks (0.240). Environmental risks (0.184), while comparatively lower in aggregate weight, remained critical in relation to reclamation obligations and pollution management. These findings provide a basis for evidence-based mitigation strategies and support a just and orderly transition in mining governance during the establishment of the new capital region.</p>

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Prioritization of risks associated with mining permit restrictions in Indonesia’s new capital region: analytic hierarcy process and fuzzy-analytic hierarcy process approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月30日

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  • Agus Miswanto,
  • Umar Dani,
  • David Candra Birawidha,
  • Kusno Isnugroho,
  • Ridwan Sutriadi,
  • Muhammad Ihsan Yudanto,
  • Anandhika Arifianto,
  • Meisha Putra Dewan,
  • Amelia Andriani,
  • Hendra Prasetia,
  • Gyan Prameswara,
  • Himawan Tri Bayu Murti Petrus

摘要

The relocation of the capital of Indonesia to East Kalimantan has introduced a policy restricting the expansion of mining business permits as part of the sustainable development agenda. While aligned with long-term environmental and governance objectives, this policy generates potential risks for government institutions, industry, and local communities. This study applied the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with Fuzzy AHP to identify and prioritize these strategic risks. A hierarchical framework was constructed based on four main criteria—economic, regulatory, social and environmental—further elaborated into 21 sub-criteria validated through literature review and expert consultation. The sub-criteria were derived using a multi-stage process involving literature synthesis and expert judgment to establish content validity prior to the AHP–Fuzzy AHP analysis. Data were collected via structured expert questionnaires and analyzed using triangular fuzzy number weighting and ratio consistency testing. The results indicated that economy risks, particularly reduced investment and rising compliance costs, hold the highest priority weight (0.302), followed by social risk (0.274) and regulation risks (0.240). Environmental risks (0.184), while comparatively lower in aggregate weight, remained critical in relation to reclamation obligations and pollution management. These findings provide a basis for evidence-based mitigation strategies and support a just and orderly transition in mining governance during the establishment of the new capital region.