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<p>The Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) countries contribute over 50% of the global population and approximately 40% of the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and thus need to practice eco-friendly development. Thus, this study aimed to explore the correlation of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions (LogCO<sub>2</sub>) with its main drivers, namely non-renewable energy consumption share (NREC), natural resource rents (AsinhNRR), and population growth (PG) in different developmental stages of BRICS members from 1995 to 2024. Annual data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and International Energy Agency (IEA) were used to analyze these relationships within a unified framework. We employ a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model estimated using the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach, following tests for stationarity, multicollinearity, and cross-sectional dependence; Fixed effects for countries and years were included, and the optimal lag length was determined using the Modified Bayesian Information Criterion (MBIC), Modified Akaike Information Criterion (MAIC), and Modified Quasi Information Criterion (MQIC). The results indicate that demographic momentum and non-renewable energy consumption reinforce each other over time, while shocks to emissions and natural resource rents generate only limited short-run spillover effects. The impulse response analysis revealed a stable system where shocks to demographic growth and non-renewable energy consumption accumulate and reinforce each other over time, thereby strengthening explanatory power at longer horizons, while cross-effects from emissions and resource rents remain limited. Overall, in the short term, no variables consistently Granger-cause emissions or resource rents, and non-renewable energy consumption largely returns to its long-term trend after shocks. In conclusion, a demography-driven transmission channel suggests that managing demographic pressures and the energy mix presents more policy opportunities than focusing solely on immediate emission shocks. This has important implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly ensuring agricultural resilience against climate-related vulnerabilities (SDG2), air pollution, and improving public health (SDG3), and alleviating environmental pressures on clean water resources and supporting sustainable water management (SDG6).</p>

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Drivers of carbon dioxide emissions in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa: a panel vector auto-regression approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月17日

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  • Mohammad Nadeem Rahimi,
  • Anil Kumar

摘要

The Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) countries contribute over 50% of the global population and approximately 40% of the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and thus need to practice eco-friendly development. Thus, this study aimed to explore the correlation of CO2 emissions (LogCO2) with its main drivers, namely non-renewable energy consumption share (NREC), natural resource rents (AsinhNRR), and population growth (PG) in different developmental stages of BRICS members from 1995 to 2024. Annual data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) and International Energy Agency (IEA) were used to analyze these relationships within a unified framework. We employ a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model estimated using the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach, following tests for stationarity, multicollinearity, and cross-sectional dependence; Fixed effects for countries and years were included, and the optimal lag length was determined using the Modified Bayesian Information Criterion (MBIC), Modified Akaike Information Criterion (MAIC), and Modified Quasi Information Criterion (MQIC). The results indicate that demographic momentum and non-renewable energy consumption reinforce each other over time, while shocks to emissions and natural resource rents generate only limited short-run spillover effects. The impulse response analysis revealed a stable system where shocks to demographic growth and non-renewable energy consumption accumulate and reinforce each other over time, thereby strengthening explanatory power at longer horizons, while cross-effects from emissions and resource rents remain limited. Overall, in the short term, no variables consistently Granger-cause emissions or resource rents, and non-renewable energy consumption largely returns to its long-term trend after shocks. In conclusion, a demography-driven transmission channel suggests that managing demographic pressures and the energy mix presents more policy opportunities than focusing solely on immediate emission shocks. This has important implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly ensuring agricultural resilience against climate-related vulnerabilities (SDG2), air pollution, and improving public health (SDG3), and alleviating environmental pressures on clean water resources and supporting sustainable water management (SDG6).