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<p>The current paper introduces a new methodology to capture the complex relationships between energy-mix (renewable and non-renewable energy ratio) and variables such as economic growth, urbanization, manufacturing activities, innovation and trade in low-carbon technology (LCT) for the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) group of countries. The study adopted the extended Lotka–Volterra model and the conventional econometric model for annual panel data of BRICS from 2000 to 2023. The results showed that predatory variables such as economic growth, urbanization and manufacturing activity negatively impact the energy-mix ratio (prey). Innovation in renewable energy and trade in low-carbon technology served as protectors and positively impacted the energy-mix ratio. The estimates highlighted that in the short run, the effect of predatory forces is more pronounced than in the long run. BRICS countries are at an important stage in their energy transition journeys and must take prompt action in the short-run. Policy interventions are solicited to counter the negative impact of energy transition. This study contributes to the current literature by providing a new methodology that compliments conventional econometric models for estimating nonlinear relations, thereby enhancing the understanding of energy economics and sustainability.</p>

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Energy transition dynamics in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South africa: a nonlinear prey–predator–protectors approach using an extended Lotka–Volterra model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月29日

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  • Dhyani Mehta

摘要

The current paper introduces a new methodology to capture the complex relationships between energy-mix (renewable and non-renewable energy ratio) and variables such as economic growth, urbanization, manufacturing activities, innovation and trade in low-carbon technology (LCT) for the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) group of countries. The study adopted the extended Lotka–Volterra model and the conventional econometric model for annual panel data of BRICS from 2000 to 2023. The results showed that predatory variables such as economic growth, urbanization and manufacturing activity negatively impact the energy-mix ratio (prey). Innovation in renewable energy and trade in low-carbon technology served as protectors and positively impacted the energy-mix ratio. The estimates highlighted that in the short run, the effect of predatory forces is more pronounced than in the long run. BRICS countries are at an important stage in their energy transition journeys and must take prompt action in the short-run. Policy interventions are solicited to counter the negative impact of energy transition. This study contributes to the current literature by providing a new methodology that compliments conventional econometric models for estimating nonlinear relations, thereby enhancing the understanding of energy economics and sustainability.