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<p>Accurately assessing the synergistic effects of pollution and carbon reduction in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Yellow River Basin is vital for advancing green transformation in both regions. This study developed a non-parametric marginal abatement cost model within an energy-environment-economy framework and integrated spatiotemporal kernel density analysis with Geographical Detector methods to examine the evolutionary patterns, spatial disparities and driving mechanisms of synergy. The findings revealed that: (1) Joint reduction strategies consistently outperformed separate reduction efforts in terms of marginal cost savings, with the Yangtze Basin exhibiting more linear and sustained improvements, whereas the Yellow River Basin demonstrated slower but steady progress. (2) Synergistic performance varied spatially, led by upstream Yangtze provinces (Yunnan, Guizhou) and Central Yellow River provinces (Inner Mongolia, Shanxi), reflecting underlying structural and governance differences. (3) Kernel density analysis revealed that the Yangtze Basin shows more consistent convergence toward high synergistic performance (0.9–1.0). In contrast, the Yellow River Basin exhibited fragmented progress and diminishing return. Spatially, synergy diffusion in the Yangtze followed threshold effects, while in the Yellow River occurred through peer-driven leaps. The spatiotemporal trends highlighted cross-regional collaboration in some regions and synchronized catch-up in others. (4) Synergistic effects shifted from single factors to multi-factor interactions, with regulation-innovation linkages emerging as key drivers in both basins. In the Yangtze Bain, FDI(Foreign direct investment) and regulation, played an increasingly important role, while the Yellow River shifted toward infrastructure and policy-technology coordination. These findings provide a more granular understanding of cross regional co-benefits and targeted implications for basin-specific coordination strategies.</p>

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Spatial kernel density assessment and driving factors detection of carbon and pollution reduction synergies in Yangtze and Yellow River regions: a marginal abatement cost perspective

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月23日

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  • Yushu Qin,
  • Hongtao Li

摘要

Accurately assessing the synergistic effects of pollution and carbon reduction in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Yellow River Basin is vital for advancing green transformation in both regions. This study developed a non-parametric marginal abatement cost model within an energy-environment-economy framework and integrated spatiotemporal kernel density analysis with Geographical Detector methods to examine the evolutionary patterns, spatial disparities and driving mechanisms of synergy. The findings revealed that: (1) Joint reduction strategies consistently outperformed separate reduction efforts in terms of marginal cost savings, with the Yangtze Basin exhibiting more linear and sustained improvements, whereas the Yellow River Basin demonstrated slower but steady progress. (2) Synergistic performance varied spatially, led by upstream Yangtze provinces (Yunnan, Guizhou) and Central Yellow River provinces (Inner Mongolia, Shanxi), reflecting underlying structural and governance differences. (3) Kernel density analysis revealed that the Yangtze Basin shows more consistent convergence toward high synergistic performance (0.9–1.0). In contrast, the Yellow River Basin exhibited fragmented progress and diminishing return. Spatially, synergy diffusion in the Yangtze followed threshold effects, while in the Yellow River occurred through peer-driven leaps. The spatiotemporal trends highlighted cross-regional collaboration in some regions and synchronized catch-up in others. (4) Synergistic effects shifted from single factors to multi-factor interactions, with regulation-innovation linkages emerging as key drivers in both basins. In the Yangtze Bain, FDI(Foreign direct investment) and regulation, played an increasingly important role, while the Yellow River shifted toward infrastructure and policy-technology coordination. These findings provide a more granular understanding of cross regional co-benefits and targeted implications for basin-specific coordination strategies.