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<p>Brazil achieved record sugarcane production in the 2023 harvest, with Minas Gerais responsible for the second largest harvest in the country, completely mechanized. The main destination of this production is the sugar and ethanol mills. In this context, agroclimatic zoning is indispensable for agricultural planning and assessing production potential in the current and future climate change scenarios. The aim was to perform current and future agroclimatic zoning, as well as to assess the possibility of mechanization for sugarcane cultivation in the state of Minas Gerais using geocomputing in the free R environment. Climate surfaces for the period 1991–2020 and future climate change scenarios were used to calculate the water balance. We adopted the ensemble mean of the ACCESS-ESM1-5, EC-Earth3-Veg, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MRI-ESM2-0 models in the future periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 in four shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Mapping of the available water capacity of soils was used in the calculation, taking into account its spatial variability. The results indicated that 36.9% of the state’s land is climatically suitable, 37.3% of which is mechanizable, equivalent to 8.11 million hectares. However, impacts of climate change scenarios on sugarcane cultivation were observed, with a tendency for an increase in water deficit, pointing to an increasingly frequent need for irrigation use and the possibility of migration limited by the non-mechanizable relief. There was good agreement between the results and municipal agricultural production data. The methodology showed potential for application in other regions.</p>

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Agroclimatic and Mechanization Zoning of Sugarcane Associated with Ethanol Production Potential in Minas Gerais Under Climate Change Scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月8日

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  • Flávio Vanoni de Carvalho Júnior,
  • Marcelo de Carvalho Alves,
  • Luiz Gonsaga de Carvalho,
  • Guilherme Vieira Pimentel,
  • Carlos Eduardo Castilla Alvarez

摘要

Brazil achieved record sugarcane production in the 2023 harvest, with Minas Gerais responsible for the second largest harvest in the country, completely mechanized. The main destination of this production is the sugar and ethanol mills. In this context, agroclimatic zoning is indispensable for agricultural planning and assessing production potential in the current and future climate change scenarios. The aim was to perform current and future agroclimatic zoning, as well as to assess the possibility of mechanization for sugarcane cultivation in the state of Minas Gerais using geocomputing in the free R environment. Climate surfaces for the period 1991–2020 and future climate change scenarios were used to calculate the water balance. We adopted the ensemble mean of the ACCESS-ESM1-5, EC-Earth3-Veg, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MRI-ESM2-0 models in the future periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 in four shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Mapping of the available water capacity of soils was used in the calculation, taking into account its spatial variability. The results indicated that 36.9% of the state’s land is climatically suitable, 37.3% of which is mechanizable, equivalent to 8.11 million hectares. However, impacts of climate change scenarios on sugarcane cultivation were observed, with a tendency for an increase in water deficit, pointing to an increasingly frequent need for irrigation use and the possibility of migration limited by the non-mechanizable relief. There was good agreement between the results and municipal agricultural production data. The methodology showed potential for application in other regions.