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<p>This paper uses the real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) of Pakistan and dates business cycles in Pakistan for use in econometric/non-econometric analysis on Pakistan’s economy. It follows National Bureau of Economic Research’s methodology to date business cycles in Pakistan. From fiscal year (FY) 1951-52 to FY-2015, absence of quarterly RGDP data pushes us to use Tahir et al., (2018), who estimated the quarterly RGDP from quarter 1 (Q1) of FY1978, this paper used their latest numbers in dating business cycle over the period Q1-FY1978 to Q4-FY2015. From Q1-FY2016, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) started publishing quarterly RGDP, thus this paper uses the official statistics to date business cycle in Pakistan using the actual official data from FY2016 onwards. It is found that Pakistan’s economy underwent a recession during Q3-Q4 of FY-2020 and FY-2023, respectively. The recessionary periods are identified using graphs and supported by plotting numerous demand-side, supply-side, and general textbook macroeconomic indicators. The aim of this work is to help students, researchers, academics, and policymakers by providing updated business cycle dating platform containing dedicated economy dashboard of macroeconomic indicators, regularly with a delay of two quarters after the actual quarter in focus, as the supporting high frequency data becomes available.</p>

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Business Cycle Dating for Pakistan’s Economy

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月19日

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  • Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed

摘要

This paper uses the real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) of Pakistan and dates business cycles in Pakistan for use in econometric/non-econometric analysis on Pakistan’s economy. It follows National Bureau of Economic Research’s methodology to date business cycles in Pakistan. From fiscal year (FY) 1951-52 to FY-2015, absence of quarterly RGDP data pushes us to use Tahir et al., (2018), who estimated the quarterly RGDP from quarter 1 (Q1) of FY1978, this paper used their latest numbers in dating business cycle over the period Q1-FY1978 to Q4-FY2015. From Q1-FY2016, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) started publishing quarterly RGDP, thus this paper uses the official statistics to date business cycle in Pakistan using the actual official data from FY2016 onwards. It is found that Pakistan’s economy underwent a recession during Q3-Q4 of FY-2020 and FY-2023, respectively. The recessionary periods are identified using graphs and supported by plotting numerous demand-side, supply-side, and general textbook macroeconomic indicators. The aim of this work is to help students, researchers, academics, and policymakers by providing updated business cycle dating platform containing dedicated economy dashboard of macroeconomic indicators, regularly with a delay of two quarters after the actual quarter in focus, as the supporting high frequency data becomes available.