Can Renewables Lead the Net-Zero Transition by 2050? Global Scenarios, Emissions, and Investment Challenges
摘要
Climate issues affecting the global environment primarily stem from anthropogenic activities over the last century, which have reached a significant scientific consensus. Immediate mitigation strategies must be adopted to recover from far-reaching environmental uncertainties. Adopting renewable energy on a large scale is one of the primary options for reaching net-zero emissions. This study investigates various renewable energy growth scenarios in the primary energy consumption mix following the last 10 years' renewable reports. The time taken for renewables to reach 50% of the global energy consumption is calculated and discussed for these growth scenarios at constant and increasing global energy demand. With the current trend and aggressive renewables ambition scenarios, renewables were expected to dominate the energy sector by the late 2040s. Total renewable energy consumption by 2030 and the required installation capacity to achieve this goal are discussed. Greenhouse gas emissions in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq), which can be abated by adopting less carbon emission-intensive renewables, and the global energy investments required to meet these ambitions were studied. By 2030, around 12.21 gigatonnes/year of CO2 can be avoided by switching to renewables. However, the global investment must be increased by two times for additional renewable installation capacity and 73.45% of the current status for power grids and energy storage options to achieve the COP28 (conference of parties) renewable pledge by 2030. The technical, social, and environmental challenges of large-scale renewable energy projects have been highlighted. This investigation stresses about the significant role of fossil fuels in the global energy sector, at least for the next two decades, and encourages the inclusion of other clean energy technologies, such as carbon capture, utilisation, and storage and improved energy efficiency for sustainable energy transition.