Modelling the Impact of COVID-19 on College Student Mode Choice for Educational Trips
摘要
The outbreak of COVID-19 led to the prolonged closure of educational institutions, significantly altering the travel behavior of students. This study aims to explore the factors that influence students' mode choice for educational trips both before and after the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions. A comprehensive web-based survey was designed and distributed through various social media channels to collect relevant data. The analysis revealed a notable shift in travel mode preferences, with students moving away from public transport towards private vehicles and Non-Motorized Transport (NMT) modes following the easing of restrictions. Statistical tests were employed to identify the key determinants affecting students' mode choice, and predictive models were developed for the pre- and post-pandemic phases. The findings highlighted that pandemic-related concerns became a dominant factor influencing travel decisions in the post-COVID scenario. Variables such as household income, ownership of motorcycles and bicycles, pandemic-related perceptions, and travel frequency emerged as significant predictors of students’ transportation choices. To evaluate the validity of the developed models, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Area Under the Curve (AUC) metrics were utilized, indicating a strong prediction performance. The insights gained from this research are valuable for post-pandemic transportation planning and policymaking, specifically tailored to address the mobility needs of students. Additionally, transportation service providers can leverage these results to optimize their operations and align their services with the evolving travel preferences in the post-pandemic era.