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<p>Recent systematic reviews and clinical practice guidelines support the use of checking-in interventions and their technological adaptations to reduce the risk of suicide attempt. Their effect on suicide mortality remains uncertain.</p><p>We conducted a rapid review of systematic reviews of checking-in interventions. We used a simulation study of meta-analytic estimates of suicide-attempt prevention to quantify the effect on suicide mortality in a hypothetical U.S. military population over one year. If the intervention is equally efficacious for fatal and nonfatal attempts, then four meta-analytic estimates suggest that a measurable reduction in suicide mortality is probable if 75% or more of the suicide attempts are identified. Two meta-analytic estimates achieved that result with lower sensitivities of 27% and 54%, respectively.</p><p>This rapid review and simulation demonstrated one approach to projecting the population effects of an intervention based on evidence for a proxy outcome. Application in other populations or to other interventions can inform decision making and manage expectations about possible and probable outcomes.</p>

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Can Prevention of Suicide Attempts Meaningfully Reduce Suicide Mortality? A Rapid Review and Simulation Study

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月14日

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  • Derek J. Smolenski,
  • Marija Kelber,
  • Tiffany Milligan,
  • Dawn Bellanti,
  • Adeya Richmond,
  • Courtney Boyd,
  • Daniel Evatt

摘要

Recent systematic reviews and clinical practice guidelines support the use of checking-in interventions and their technological adaptations to reduce the risk of suicide attempt. Their effect on suicide mortality remains uncertain.

We conducted a rapid review of systematic reviews of checking-in interventions. We used a simulation study of meta-analytic estimates of suicide-attempt prevention to quantify the effect on suicide mortality in a hypothetical U.S. military population over one year. If the intervention is equally efficacious for fatal and nonfatal attempts, then four meta-analytic estimates suggest that a measurable reduction in suicide mortality is probable if 75% or more of the suicide attempts are identified. Two meta-analytic estimates achieved that result with lower sensitivities of 27% and 54%, respectively.

This rapid review and simulation demonstrated one approach to projecting the population effects of an intervention based on evidence for a proxy outcome. Application in other populations or to other interventions can inform decision making and manage expectations about possible and probable outcomes.