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<p>This study examines warming rates in maximum and minimum air temperatures across Jordan from 1980 to 2019 using high-resolution CHELSA data and space–time seasonal Kendall trend analysis. It also investigates the role of elevation in shaping warming rates through simple linear regression (SLR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results show that all regions of Jordan experienced statistically significant warming, with a mean decadal warming rate approximately double the global average of 0.07&#xa0;°C/decade. Maximum temperatures increased at an average rate of 0.559&#xa0;°C/decade (0.462–0.800&#xa0;°C/decade), nearly twice—and in some locations up to four times—the rate of minimum temperatures (0.143–0.500&#xa0;°C/decade; average 0.327&#xa0;°C/decade). Low-lying areas below mean sea level exhibited faster warming than higher elevations above mean sea level. Elevation significantly influenced warming rates. SLR showed a consistent negative relationship between elevation and warming rates, indicating a suppressing effect, with notable differences between areas above and below sea level. GWR further revealed spatially variable relationships—ranging from negative to positive or non-significant—but confirmed elevation’s overall mitigating impact, with clear contrasts across elevation zones. These findings underscore the need for elevation-sensitive, region-specific climate mitigation and adaptation strategies in Jordan.</p>

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Elevation-dependent warming trends in Jordan over four decades

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月17日

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  • Amjad S. Qazaq,
  • Mahmoud M. Abu-Allaban,
  • Salahuddin M. Jaber

摘要

This study examines warming rates in maximum and minimum air temperatures across Jordan from 1980 to 2019 using high-resolution CHELSA data and space–time seasonal Kendall trend analysis. It also investigates the role of elevation in shaping warming rates through simple linear regression (SLR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results show that all regions of Jordan experienced statistically significant warming, with a mean decadal warming rate approximately double the global average of 0.07 °C/decade. Maximum temperatures increased at an average rate of 0.559 °C/decade (0.462–0.800 °C/decade), nearly twice—and in some locations up to four times—the rate of minimum temperatures (0.143–0.500 °C/decade; average 0.327 °C/decade). Low-lying areas below mean sea level exhibited faster warming than higher elevations above mean sea level. Elevation significantly influenced warming rates. SLR showed a consistent negative relationship between elevation and warming rates, indicating a suppressing effect, with notable differences between areas above and below sea level. GWR further revealed spatially variable relationships—ranging from negative to positive or non-significant—but confirmed elevation’s overall mitigating impact, with clear contrasts across elevation zones. These findings underscore the need for elevation-sensitive, region-specific climate mitigation and adaptation strategies in Jordan.