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<p>Dengue, a rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease, poses a serious public health threat in tropical cities like Dhaka, Bangladesh—one of the world’s most densely populated megacities. In 2023 alone, Dhaka experienced its worst outbreak, recording 321,179 cases and 1,705 deaths. This study aims to assess dengue susceptibility across Dhaka using a geospatial Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach. Fourteen environmental and demographic factors were selected, and thematic raster layers were developed and weighted using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). These layers were integrated to generate spatial dengue susceptibility maps, highlighting risk zones across the city. Findings reveal that southern and southeastern Dhaka, particularly under the South City Corporation, are highly susceptible based on environmental factors. Demographic analysis shows moderate to very high susceptibility in central and southern wards, with population density and proximity to waterlogged areas identified as key drivers. The model was validated through field surveys with 80 stakeholders, with 67.5% agreeing with the susceptibility classifications. This study provides a scalable and transferable framework for dengue risk assessment and can inform targeted interventions in other endemic regions. The results offer critical guidance for urban health planning, vector control, and resource allocation to mitigate dengue and similar vector-borne diseases.</p>

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Mapping dengue susceptibility in Dhaka city: a geospatial multi-criteria approach integrating environmental and demographic factors

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月25日

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  • Muhammad Al-Amin Hoque,
  • Md. Limon Sardar,
  • Sharif A. Mukul,
  • Biswajeet Pradhan

摘要

Dengue, a rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease, poses a serious public health threat in tropical cities like Dhaka, Bangladesh—one of the world’s most densely populated megacities. In 2023 alone, Dhaka experienced its worst outbreak, recording 321,179 cases and 1,705 deaths. This study aims to assess dengue susceptibility across Dhaka using a geospatial Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach. Fourteen environmental and demographic factors were selected, and thematic raster layers were developed and weighted using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). These layers were integrated to generate spatial dengue susceptibility maps, highlighting risk zones across the city. Findings reveal that southern and southeastern Dhaka, particularly under the South City Corporation, are highly susceptible based on environmental factors. Demographic analysis shows moderate to very high susceptibility in central and southern wards, with population density and proximity to waterlogged areas identified as key drivers. The model was validated through field surveys with 80 stakeholders, with 67.5% agreeing with the susceptibility classifications. This study provides a scalable and transferable framework for dengue risk assessment and can inform targeted interventions in other endemic regions. The results offer critical guidance for urban health planning, vector control, and resource allocation to mitigate dengue and similar vector-borne diseases.