GIS-Based Modelling and Multi-Criteria Evaluation for the Suitability Assessment of Green Mussel Aquaculture Expansion in Tagabuli Bay, Southeastern Mindanao
摘要
This study assessed the suitability of Tagabuli Bay for green mussel (Perna viridis) aquaculture using a GIS-based modelling and multi-criteria evaluation. Water quality parameters were measured bimonthly at nine stratified random stations from April to August 2025. Results showed generally favorable conditions, with dissolved oxygen at 4.0 ± 0.20 ppm, salinity at 31.6 ± 0.29 ppt, pH at 7.5 ± 0.08, temperature at 30.2 ± 0.09 °C, and chlorophyll-a at 3.48 ± 0.46 ppb. Spatial surfaces generated via Inverse Distance Weighting indicated low interpolation errors for temperature, salinity, and pH, moderate errors for chlorophyll-a and dissolved oxygen, reflecting spatial heterogeneity. Environmental layers were combined using Equal Weighting Scheme (EWS) and Entropy Weight Method (EWM), producing a composite suitability index classified into low, moderate, and high suitability via Jenks natural breaks. High suitability zones (SI 7.1–10) were mainly in the central and northwestern bay, while eastern and southeastern areas were less suitable. Under EWM, high suitability covered 520,752 m²; moderate, 284,684 m²; low, 2,844 m². EWS increased high suitability to 658,642 m², with moderate decreasing to 146,646 m. Total bay area was approximately 808,280 m² for both methods. Sensitivity analysis of EWM weights showed minimal impact on suitability scores, indicating model robustness. Validation favored EWS, with a lower RMSE (1.363) than EWM (1.561). Taken together, Tagabuli Bay demonstrates favorable environmental and spatial conditions for green mussel aquaculture expansion. Furthermore, the modelling approach developed in this study offers a practical, data-driven tool for guiding sustainable site selection despite some sampling and temporal limitations.