<p>In response to the challenges posed by climate change on agricultural productivity, this study aimed to identify optimal areas for Moroccan pomegranate (<i>Punica granatum</i> L.) cultivation by assessing climatic suitability through a modeling approach. The model’s reliability was confirmed by an average AUC (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve) value of 0.969, indicating high sensitivity. Key climatic factors, including precipitation, altitude, and temperature during the warmest and wettest quarters, were found to influence pomegranate distribution significantly. Two experiments were conducted to validate the model’s predictions. The first experiment evaluated potential production and fruit quality in the local cultivars (‘Sefri’ and ‘Marsi’) and the exotic variety ‘Wonderful’ across two distinct environmental conditions: the warm conditions of ‘Ain Taoujdate’ and the colder environment of the ‘Anouceur’ region. Results revealed a substantial decline in fruit yield in the colder climate during the first year, with 35%, 37%, and 57% reductions for ‘Wonderful,’ ‘Marsi,’ and ‘Sefri,’ respectively. In addition, cold conditions led to significant reductions in juice total phenolic, anthocyanin, and antioxidant activity in all cultivars. The second experiment focused on the adaptation of the ‘Sefri’ cultivar under three distinct environmental conditions: ‘Ain Taoujdate,’ ‘Khemisset,’ and ‘El Hajeb.’ The highest fruit production (&gt; 50&#xa0;kg tree⁻¹) was detected at the ‘Khemisset’ station, while the largest fruit size and highest juice content were recorded in the ‘Ain Taoujdate’ station. Notably, fruits from ‘El Hajeb’ exhibited the highest levels of juice phenols and antioxidant activity. These experimental findings align with the modeling predictions, reinforcing the utility of this approach in identifying suitable regions for pomegranate cultivation in Morocco.</p>