Evaluation of Multiyear Flood Dynamics in the Panchganga River Basin Using Hydrologic-Hydraulic Modelling, GIS and Ground-Based Observations
摘要
Reliable flood dynamics assessment is essential for effective flood risk management in India due to rainfall-driven runoff variability, causing unpredictable flood events leading to socio-economic losses. In the Panchganga river basin, most flood studies focused on the inundation map, while quantifying land-use-specific flood impact and multi-year dynamic assessment is currently missing. This study evaluates multi-year flood dynamics and quantifies land-use-specific flood impact in the Panchganga River Basin, Maharashtra, using integrated hydrologic–hydraulic modelling, GIS and ground-based data. The hydrodynamic modelling was performed using HEC-HMS, implementing the SCS-CN method for rainfall losses, SCS-UH for runoff transformation, and the Muskingum method for flow routing. Model calibration using five years of observed data (2015–2019) yielded satisfactory performance with R2 values ranging from 0.784 to 0.850 and NSE values between 0.731 and 0.858. Model validation using three years of independent observed data (2013, 2014, and 2020) showed strong agreement, with R2 ranging from 0.779 to 0.904 and NSE values between 0.729 and 0.783. The hydraulic simulations were performed using HEC-RAS (2D) for unsteady flow, generating flood depth, velocity, and inundation maps. The results indicate that flood-affected built-up areas increased from 20.40% in 2018 to 28.93% in 2019, while affected cropland areas increased from 17.50% to 19.76%. The study demonstrates the applicability of an integrated HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, GIS-based approach and ground-based data for flood risk assessment and supports informed decision-making for flood mitigation and sustainable water resource management in the Panchganga River Basin.