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<p>Urban water security is a complex and multidimensional challenge. It extends beyond water availability to include quality, reliability, continuous access, and the long-term sustainability of services. This study investigates the urban water scarcity crisis in Tehran over a 150-year period (1875–2025) using the adaptive cycle framework. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining historical data analysis, expert elicitation, and application of the cycle to identify stages of development, protection, collapse, and renewal in Tehran’s water governance structure. Originally designed for social-ecological systems, the adaptive cycle framework helps reveal recurring patterns of vulnerability and resilience. These dynamics are shaped by rapid urban growth, institutional changes, climate variability, and resource depletion. Results show that focusing solely on infrastructure development, without flexible governance, has increased rigidity and reduced the capacity to address emerging challenges. At present, Tehran’s urban water network is in the Contemporary Reorganisation (α) phase of the cycle. This stage is marked by two critical traps: the “Vagabond Trap,” caused by fragmentation of system components, and the “Poverty Trap,” driven by severe depletion of natural capital and resource scarcity. These traps intensify structural rigidities and resource limitations, constraining coordinated recovery and long-term functionality. The study concludes that overcoming Tehran’s water security crisis requires comprehensive and diversified management strategies. Key priorities include improving connectivity, increasing resource availability, fostering institutional innovation, and promoting broad stakeholder collaboration. Such approaches enable continuous learning and flexibility, contributing to the resilience of urban water services. They also enhance resource management practices in arid and water-scarce regions. By revealing adaptive cycles and critical traps in Tehran’s water framework, this research offers insights for designing future-oriented policies to address demographic and climatic pressures.</p>

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Tehran’s Water Scarcity Dilemma: Insights from a 150-Year Adaptive Cycle Assessment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月26日

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  • Majid Rahimi,
  • Mehdi Ghorbani

摘要

Urban water security is a complex and multidimensional challenge. It extends beyond water availability to include quality, reliability, continuous access, and the long-term sustainability of services. This study investigates the urban water scarcity crisis in Tehran over a 150-year period (1875–2025) using the adaptive cycle framework. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining historical data analysis, expert elicitation, and application of the cycle to identify stages of development, protection, collapse, and renewal in Tehran’s water governance structure. Originally designed for social-ecological systems, the adaptive cycle framework helps reveal recurring patterns of vulnerability and resilience. These dynamics are shaped by rapid urban growth, institutional changes, climate variability, and resource depletion. Results show that focusing solely on infrastructure development, without flexible governance, has increased rigidity and reduced the capacity to address emerging challenges. At present, Tehran’s urban water network is in the Contemporary Reorganisation (α) phase of the cycle. This stage is marked by two critical traps: the “Vagabond Trap,” caused by fragmentation of system components, and the “Poverty Trap,” driven by severe depletion of natural capital and resource scarcity. These traps intensify structural rigidities and resource limitations, constraining coordinated recovery and long-term functionality. The study concludes that overcoming Tehran’s water security crisis requires comprehensive and diversified management strategies. Key priorities include improving connectivity, increasing resource availability, fostering institutional innovation, and promoting broad stakeholder collaboration. Such approaches enable continuous learning and flexibility, contributing to the resilience of urban water services. They also enhance resource management practices in arid and water-scarce regions. By revealing adaptive cycles and critical traps in Tehran’s water framework, this research offers insights for designing future-oriented policies to address demographic and climatic pressures.