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<p>Assessing water resources carrying capacity serves as a critical benchmark for evaluating regional water resources and offers a theoretical foundation for their rational development and utilization. In this study, the nine cities and prefectures within the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin are selected as the research subjects. An evaluation system is constructed, incorporating water resources, economy, society, and ecological environment as criterion layers. Using the combined weighting-TOPSIS model, the study conducts a comprehensive assessment of water resources carrying capacity from 2009 to 2022. Additionally, the obstacle degree model is employed to quantify the impact of each index. Finally, the GM-Ridge coupling method is utilized to scientifically forecast future carrying capacity trends.The findings indicate the following: (1) The carrying capacity of each city and prefecture exhibited a fluctuating upward trend over time, generally surpassing the critical carrying capacity threshold after 2019. By 2022, only Dingxi City, Tianshui City, and Pingliang City maintained their water resource carrying capacity at the critical level, whereas the remaining cities and prefectures achieved a sustainable carrying capacity state. (2) Each subsystem demonstrated regional disparities. Both the economic and ecological environment subsystems showed a fluctuating upward trend over time. Regarding the water resources subsystem, apart from Pingliang City and Dingxi City, which experienced a gradual decline, the others displayed an increasing trend. For the social subsystem, Linxia Prefecture and Gannan Prefecture exhibited an upward trend, while the rest of the cities and prefectures showed a downward trend. (3) Key obstacle factors included ecological environment water consumption, urban sewage treatment capacity, green space coverage in urban built-up areas, runoff volume, total water resources, and rainfall. These factors varied significantly across different cities and prefectures. (4) It is projected that by 2030, except for Dingxi City, which will remain at a critical carrying capacity level (0.49), the carrying capacity of the other cities and prefectures will improve markedly and reach a sustainable level. (5) In Dingxi and Baiyin, optimizing ecological water use and improving efficiency are crucial; in Qingyang and Pingliang, priority should be given to enhancing wastewater treatment and promoting water recycling; in Wuwei and Gannan, urban green coverage and water-saving irrigation must be improved; in Linxia, Tianshui, and Lanzhou, water-saving agriculture, rainwater harvesting, and optimized water allocation are essential for sustainability.These research outcomes can serve as a reference for promoting the sustainable utilization of water resources in the nine cities and prefectures of the Yellow River Basin in Gansu Province.</p>

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Research on Evaluation and Prediction of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Potential in the Yellow River Basin of Gansu Province, China Based on the Combined Weighted TOPSIS Model and the GM-Ridge Joint Weighted Coupling Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月2日

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  • Hongpeng Fan,
  • Yanfang Li

摘要

Assessing water resources carrying capacity serves as a critical benchmark for evaluating regional water resources and offers a theoretical foundation for their rational development and utilization. In this study, the nine cities and prefectures within the Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin are selected as the research subjects. An evaluation system is constructed, incorporating water resources, economy, society, and ecological environment as criterion layers. Using the combined weighting-TOPSIS model, the study conducts a comprehensive assessment of water resources carrying capacity from 2009 to 2022. Additionally, the obstacle degree model is employed to quantify the impact of each index. Finally, the GM-Ridge coupling method is utilized to scientifically forecast future carrying capacity trends.The findings indicate the following: (1) The carrying capacity of each city and prefecture exhibited a fluctuating upward trend over time, generally surpassing the critical carrying capacity threshold after 2019. By 2022, only Dingxi City, Tianshui City, and Pingliang City maintained their water resource carrying capacity at the critical level, whereas the remaining cities and prefectures achieved a sustainable carrying capacity state. (2) Each subsystem demonstrated regional disparities. Both the economic and ecological environment subsystems showed a fluctuating upward trend over time. Regarding the water resources subsystem, apart from Pingliang City and Dingxi City, which experienced a gradual decline, the others displayed an increasing trend. For the social subsystem, Linxia Prefecture and Gannan Prefecture exhibited an upward trend, while the rest of the cities and prefectures showed a downward trend. (3) Key obstacle factors included ecological environment water consumption, urban sewage treatment capacity, green space coverage in urban built-up areas, runoff volume, total water resources, and rainfall. These factors varied significantly across different cities and prefectures. (4) It is projected that by 2030, except for Dingxi City, which will remain at a critical carrying capacity level (0.49), the carrying capacity of the other cities and prefectures will improve markedly and reach a sustainable level. (5) In Dingxi and Baiyin, optimizing ecological water use and improving efficiency are crucial; in Qingyang and Pingliang, priority should be given to enhancing wastewater treatment and promoting water recycling; in Wuwei and Gannan, urban green coverage and water-saving irrigation must be improved; in Linxia, Tianshui, and Lanzhou, water-saving agriculture, rainwater harvesting, and optimized water allocation are essential for sustainability.These research outcomes can serve as a reference for promoting the sustainable utilization of water resources in the nine cities and prefectures of the Yellow River Basin in Gansu Province.