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<p>Pakistan faces escalating vulnerability to climate-induced hydrological extremes, as demonstrated by the catastrophic 2022 monsoon floods that severely compromised urban drainage capacity. This study explicitly quantifies how projected rainfall intensification under climate change impacts drainage infrastructure performance and adaptation costs in Phase 05, Hayatabad, Peshawar. Using observed precipitation data (2013–2022) and downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios, we developed current and future Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. These revealed substantial precipitation intensification, with 100-year event intensities increasing by 28.7-126.6% across different durations. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) simulated system performance, demonstrating that infrastructure upgrades require pipe diameter increases of 0.3–1.2&#xa0;m to maintain functionality under future climate conditions. Consequently, adaptation costs escalate significantly from 41&#xa0;million Pakistani Rupees (PKR) for current conditions to 49&#xa0;million PKR under SSP4.5 and 63&#xa0;million PKR under SSP8.5, representing a 54% cost increase for worst-case scenarios. This research provides a transferable methodology for integrating climate projections into drainage design, offering policymakers evidence-based strategies for climate-resilient urban planning. The findings underscore the economic imperative of proactive infrastructure adaptation in developing cities facing increasing precipitation extremes.</p>

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Rising Waters: Designing Climate-Resilient Urban Drainage System

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月31日

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  • Muhammad Adnan,
  • Fayaz Ahmad Khan,
  • Afed Ullah Khan,
  • Basir Ullah

摘要

Pakistan faces escalating vulnerability to climate-induced hydrological extremes, as demonstrated by the catastrophic 2022 monsoon floods that severely compromised urban drainage capacity. This study explicitly quantifies how projected rainfall intensification under climate change impacts drainage infrastructure performance and adaptation costs in Phase 05, Hayatabad, Peshawar. Using observed precipitation data (2013–2022) and downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios, we developed current and future Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. These revealed substantial precipitation intensification, with 100-year event intensities increasing by 28.7-126.6% across different durations. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) simulated system performance, demonstrating that infrastructure upgrades require pipe diameter increases of 0.3–1.2 m to maintain functionality under future climate conditions. Consequently, adaptation costs escalate significantly from 41 million Pakistani Rupees (PKR) for current conditions to 49 million PKR under SSP4.5 and 63 million PKR under SSP8.5, representing a 54% cost increase for worst-case scenarios. This research provides a transferable methodology for integrating climate projections into drainage design, offering policymakers evidence-based strategies for climate-resilient urban planning. The findings underscore the economic imperative of proactive infrastructure adaptation in developing cities facing increasing precipitation extremes.