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<p>Climate change poses one of the greatest threats to agricultural water (AgWater) availability in many regions across the globe. This study investigates agricultural water availability and adaptation strategies in response to climate change in the Kagera Sub-Basin. Climate projections from CMIP6 GCMs were used in parallel with the HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate future hydrological conditions. Ten adaptation options were identified based on their relevance and feasibility in the local context and were assessed for their potential effectiveness. The results suggest that future rainfall in the region is projected to increase in the range of 1 to 45%, depending on the emission scenario. AgWater availability is likely to rise under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0), whereas low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) are associated with a decline in AgWater availability. Simultaneously, agricultural water demand is expected to increase, reaching between 1190 and 1271&#xa0;mm per year, compared to the baseline average of 1147&#xa0;mm. On the other hand, the findings reveal that current rainfed practices will be insufficient to meet both current and future agricultural water needs. Among the adaptation strategies evaluated, full irrigation was effective in the Ngono catchment but fell short in addressing AgWater deficits in Mwisa. Adjusting the planting calendar emerged as an effective strategy in both sub-catchments. Moreover, mulching and deficit irrigation would increase AgWater availability, although their effectiveness was limited when applied in isolation under current rainfed practices. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and agricultural planners towards building resilience in the sub-basin.</p>

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Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Water Availability and Adaptation Options in the Kagera Sub-Basin, Tanzania

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月18日

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  • Nickson Tibangayuka,
  • Deogratias M. M. Mulungu,
  • Fides Izdori

摘要

Climate change poses one of the greatest threats to agricultural water (AgWater) availability in many regions across the globe. This study investigates agricultural water availability and adaptation strategies in response to climate change in the Kagera Sub-Basin. Climate projections from CMIP6 GCMs were used in parallel with the HEC-HMS hydrological model to simulate future hydrological conditions. Ten adaptation options were identified based on their relevance and feasibility in the local context and were assessed for their potential effectiveness. The results suggest that future rainfall in the region is projected to increase in the range of 1 to 45%, depending on the emission scenario. AgWater availability is likely to rise under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0), whereas low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) are associated with a decline in AgWater availability. Simultaneously, agricultural water demand is expected to increase, reaching between 1190 and 1271 mm per year, compared to the baseline average of 1147 mm. On the other hand, the findings reveal that current rainfed practices will be insufficient to meet both current and future agricultural water needs. Among the adaptation strategies evaluated, full irrigation was effective in the Ngono catchment but fell short in addressing AgWater deficits in Mwisa. Adjusting the planting calendar emerged as an effective strategy in both sub-catchments. Moreover, mulching and deficit irrigation would increase AgWater availability, although their effectiveness was limited when applied in isolation under current rainfed practices. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and agricultural planners towards building resilience in the sub-basin.