<p>Seismic safety assessment of dams is challenged by significant uncertainties and subjective expert judgments, particularly when integrating geological, structural, and seismic factors. This study aims to develop a systematic and transparent decision-support framework for prioritizing seismic risk factors affecting dam safety under such uncertainty. A Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Fuzzy TOPSIS) approach is proposed to evaluate twelve sub-criteria grouped under three main criteria: seismic damage potential, seismic hazard, and structural strength. Qualitative assessments are obtained from a panel of thirty experts comprising dam engineers, geologists, and earthquake engineers. Expert linguistic evaluations are transformed into Triangular Fuzzy Numbers to capture inherent ambiguity, aggregated, and subsequently defuzzified using the centroid method to derive representative crisp scores. Both flat and nested ranking approaches are employed to analyze and prioritize the sub-criteria and main criteria, enabling a comprehensive assessment from both localized and hierarchical perspectives. The framework is demonstrated through a numerical case study of the Koyna Dam in India, a rubble-concrete dam with a well-documented seismic history. The results reveal that structural and geological parameters dominate the highest risk rankings, with fault existence and separation joints identified as the most critical sub-criteria influencing seismic safety. Additionally, the consistency of expert judgments was evaluated using standard deviation analysis to identify areas of agreement and divergence. The proposed dual-ranking Fuzzy TOPSIS framework offers a novel and robust tool for seismic dam safety assessment by integrating uncertainty modeling, hierarchical risk prioritization, and expert reliability evaluation, thereby supporting informed decision-making for dam managers and policymakers.</p>

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Seismic dam safety assessment using fuzzy TOPSIS method

  • Alabhya Sharma,
  • S. D. Bharti,
  • M. K. Shrimali,
  • T. K. Datta

摘要

Seismic safety assessment of dams is challenged by significant uncertainties and subjective expert judgments, particularly when integrating geological, structural, and seismic factors. This study aims to develop a systematic and transparent decision-support framework for prioritizing seismic risk factors affecting dam safety under such uncertainty. A Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (Fuzzy TOPSIS) approach is proposed to evaluate twelve sub-criteria grouped under three main criteria: seismic damage potential, seismic hazard, and structural strength. Qualitative assessments are obtained from a panel of thirty experts comprising dam engineers, geologists, and earthquake engineers. Expert linguistic evaluations are transformed into Triangular Fuzzy Numbers to capture inherent ambiguity, aggregated, and subsequently defuzzified using the centroid method to derive representative crisp scores. Both flat and nested ranking approaches are employed to analyze and prioritize the sub-criteria and main criteria, enabling a comprehensive assessment from both localized and hierarchical perspectives. The framework is demonstrated through a numerical case study of the Koyna Dam in India, a rubble-concrete dam with a well-documented seismic history. The results reveal that structural and geological parameters dominate the highest risk rankings, with fault existence and separation joints identified as the most critical sub-criteria influencing seismic safety. Additionally, the consistency of expert judgments was evaluated using standard deviation analysis to identify areas of agreement and divergence. The proposed dual-ranking Fuzzy TOPSIS framework offers a novel and robust tool for seismic dam safety assessment by integrating uncertainty modeling, hierarchical risk prioritization, and expert reliability evaluation, thereby supporting informed decision-making for dam managers and policymakers.