Development of crash modification factor for lane and shoulder width: a matched case-referent approach
摘要
The Crash Modification Factor (CMF) is a widely used tool to quantify the expected change in crash frequency after implementing a specific countermeasure on a road or intersection. This research aims to directly estimate CMFs for rural road facilities using the Case-Referent (CR) approach, typically employed in epidemiology to analyze risks related to individual attributes. Similar idea is implemented in road safety analysis, where the entity of interest is a road section rather than an individual to assess the impact on total, rear-end, head-on, daytime, and night-time fatal crashes. Using a 1:2 matching ratio, cases and referents were paired based on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) to estimate odds ratios. The findings revealed that a lane width of 2.75–3.00 m was the safest for all fatal crashes. Additionally, providing a 1.01–1.50 m paved shoulder acted as a protective factor for head-on, daytime, and night-time fatal crashes. However, increased unpaved shoulder width contributed to more rear-end and daytime fatal crashes. The study also showed that curves with a radius of less than 250 m reduced rear-end fatal crashes by 10%, while smaller curve radii increased total, head-on, daytime, and night-time fatal crashes. This research can guide the standardization of rural two-lane undivided roads and highways, ultimately improving road safety and reducing crashes.