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<p>The growing use of machine learning for integrity assessments in public administration has intensified interest in understanding how algorithms can detect corruption risk—a topic of increasing relevance in the context of rising demands for transparency. Previous research on fraud detection often overlooks the dual challenge of extreme class imbalance and the need for model explainability. This study addresses both issues by combining data-level and algorithm-level techniques in a real-world dataset from Brazil’s Federal District, where there is one corruption case for every 707 non-corruption cases (a ratio of 1:707). Data engineering was essential, encompassing gathering, cleaning, transformation, and dimensionality reduction to enhance model performance and interpretability. Among the tested models, weighted logistic regression stood out, achieving the best AUC (0.692). To increase transparency, we employed SHapley Additive exPlanations, enabling both global and local interpretability of predictions. The analysis identified strong predictors of corruption risk, such as business ownership, political candidacy, and frequent job function changes. This work provides a replicable pipeline that integrates imbalanced learning and explainable AI, offering valuable contributions to risk management and decision-making in the public sector.</p>

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Imbalanced learning in corruption detection: results explanations with SHAP

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月28日

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  • Marcelo Oliveira Vasconcelos,
  • Luís Cavique

摘要

The growing use of machine learning for integrity assessments in public administration has intensified interest in understanding how algorithms can detect corruption risk—a topic of increasing relevance in the context of rising demands for transparency. Previous research on fraud detection often overlooks the dual challenge of extreme class imbalance and the need for model explainability. This study addresses both issues by combining data-level and algorithm-level techniques in a real-world dataset from Brazil’s Federal District, where there is one corruption case for every 707 non-corruption cases (a ratio of 1:707). Data engineering was essential, encompassing gathering, cleaning, transformation, and dimensionality reduction to enhance model performance and interpretability. Among the tested models, weighted logistic regression stood out, achieving the best AUC (0.692). To increase transparency, we employed SHapley Additive exPlanations, enabling both global and local interpretability of predictions. The analysis identified strong predictors of corruption risk, such as business ownership, political candidacy, and frequent job function changes. This work provides a replicable pipeline that integrates imbalanced learning and explainable AI, offering valuable contributions to risk management and decision-making in the public sector.