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<p>Earthquakes have always been one of the most important issues of concern to researchers throughout human history due to the large number of human and financial losses. This paper aims at an integrated study of thermal precursors for a particular earthquake, including ERA5 extracted variables - Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), Relative Humidity (RH), and Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) - and Land Surface Temperature (LST) derived via the Landsat 8 retrieval algorithm based on Planck’s law. We analyzed the 10-day periods before and after the Mw 7.3 Sarpol-e Zahab earthquake on November 12, 2017, in Kermanshah province in Iran. The LST analysis showed a short-term temperature increase of approximately 8&#xa0;°C during the 2–4 days preceding the earthquake. However, because near-surface thermal conditions are strongly influenced by short-term meteorological variability, this anomaly should be interpreted cautiously as a possible pre-seismic thermal signal rather than definitive evidence of an earthquake precursor.The SLHF index also exhibited a jump of more than 45–50% on the day of the earthquake (from 310 to 340 to more than 470&#xa0;W/m²), which then gradually decreased. The OLR values increased to approximately 415–420&#xa0;W/m² around November 10–12, 2017, while RH decreased from about 45–47% to below 38–40% and returned to its baseline approximately two days after the earthquake. These variations were not evident in the corresponding periods of the selected reference years; nevertheless, their interpretation requires caution because OLR and RH are also affected by atmospheric circulation, cloud cover, humidity transport, and other meteorological factors.The simultaneous variations in LST, SLHF, OLR, and RH suggest the occurrence of a possible thermal–atmospheric anomaly associated with the earthquake period. However, these findings should be regarded as case-specific and require further validation using synoptic meteorological analysis, long-term climatological baselines, and additional earthquake cases.</p>

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Estimating the Earth’s Surface Thermal Anomaly as an Earthquake Precursor Using Google Earth Engine: Case Study: November 2017 Sarpol-e Zahab Earthquake

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Mina Firouzyazdi,
  • Mahdi Boroughani,
  • Masashi Hayakawa

摘要

Earthquakes have always been one of the most important issues of concern to researchers throughout human history due to the large number of human and financial losses. This paper aims at an integrated study of thermal precursors for a particular earthquake, including ERA5 extracted variables - Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), Relative Humidity (RH), and Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) - and Land Surface Temperature (LST) derived via the Landsat 8 retrieval algorithm based on Planck’s law. We analyzed the 10-day periods before and after the Mw 7.3 Sarpol-e Zahab earthquake on November 12, 2017, in Kermanshah province in Iran. The LST analysis showed a short-term temperature increase of approximately 8 °C during the 2–4 days preceding the earthquake. However, because near-surface thermal conditions are strongly influenced by short-term meteorological variability, this anomaly should be interpreted cautiously as a possible pre-seismic thermal signal rather than definitive evidence of an earthquake precursor.The SLHF index also exhibited a jump of more than 45–50% on the day of the earthquake (from 310 to 340 to more than 470 W/m²), which then gradually decreased. The OLR values increased to approximately 415–420 W/m² around November 10–12, 2017, while RH decreased from about 45–47% to below 38–40% and returned to its baseline approximately two days after the earthquake. These variations were not evident in the corresponding periods of the selected reference years; nevertheless, their interpretation requires caution because OLR and RH are also affected by atmospheric circulation, cloud cover, humidity transport, and other meteorological factors.The simultaneous variations in LST, SLHF, OLR, and RH suggest the occurrence of a possible thermal–atmospheric anomaly associated with the earthquake period. However, these findings should be regarded as case-specific and require further validation using synoptic meteorological analysis, long-term climatological baselines, and additional earthquake cases.