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<p>Climate change is one of the major challenges in water resources management. To address this challenge, it is essential to consider appropriate management policies and programs that can reduce the destructive effects of changes to protect water resources. In this research, the effects of climate change on surface runoff in the arid Zardtol watershed, located in Semnan (Iran) are studied. For this purpose, the ensemble SWAT model and climate data provided from CMIP6, downscaled by the SDSM model are utilized. The results indicate that, due to decreases in future precipitation, average runoff has also reduced in most months. The greatest reductions in the monthly average of runoff for the future is related to October and September, depending on different scenarios; − 71.74, −&#xa0;83.32, and − 76.21% for SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The results also indicate an intensification of droughts during the dry season in the future, which indicates an increase in the vulnerability of surface runoff in this watershed to climate change. As a result, the reduction in surface runoff creates serious challenges for water resource management and requires careful planning and the developing of climate change adaptation solutions.</p>

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Projecting Surface Runoff Variability Under Climate Change in a Water-Stressed Arid Watershed; Using SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios (Case Study: Zardtol Watershed, Semnan, Iran)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月9日

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  • Mahsa Doostmohamadi,
  • Khosrow Hosseini,
  • Candidate

摘要

Climate change is one of the major challenges in water resources management. To address this challenge, it is essential to consider appropriate management policies and programs that can reduce the destructive effects of changes to protect water resources. In this research, the effects of climate change on surface runoff in the arid Zardtol watershed, located in Semnan (Iran) are studied. For this purpose, the ensemble SWAT model and climate data provided from CMIP6, downscaled by the SDSM model are utilized. The results indicate that, due to decreases in future precipitation, average runoff has also reduced in most months. The greatest reductions in the monthly average of runoff for the future is related to October and September, depending on different scenarios; − 71.74, − 83.32, and − 76.21% for SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The results also indicate an intensification of droughts during the dry season in the future, which indicates an increase in the vulnerability of surface runoff in this watershed to climate change. As a result, the reduction in surface runoff creates serious challenges for water resource management and requires careful planning and the developing of climate change adaptation solutions.