Migration Spillover: Spatial Panel Analysis on Small Areas in Europe
摘要
Migration is inherently a spatial process. This study revisits key arguments from traditional push-pull theories and the cumulative causation framework. Building on these foundations, it explores spatial spillover patterns in migration and their potential driving forces using spatial panel analysis. By focusing on subregional and smaller geographic areas, the analysis draws on data from the European Union, supplemented with satellite-based nighttime light imagery, to examine the economic and demographic factors influencing net migration. Results from fixed-effects spatial panel models reveal significant spillover effects: migration itself generates strong spillovers, and job opportunities in neighboring areas exert the strongest pull -- both in the short and long term. Interestingly, and contrary to classical assumptions, the findings show a negative relationship between local population density and net migration. These insights provide a fresh perspective on the cumulative causation framework, suggesting a more outward and spatially diffusive pattern of migration over time.