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<p>This paper investigates the long and short-term impacts of trade openness, energy use, urbanization, and GDP per capita growth on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the five SAARC countries: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka; between 1991 and 2023. The findings obtained with the help of the Panel ARDL-PMG estimator partially confirm the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, indicating the region is still in the upward and pollution-intensive stage. The long-term forecasts indicate that the growth in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions is 0.011%, 0.47%, 0.004% and 1.30% corresponding to a 1% increase in the GDP per capita growth, urbanization, trade, and energy consumption respectively. The Error Correction Term shows that corrections are made at 21.2% per annum and stabilizes the situation in approximately 4.7 years. The effects of trade, urbanization, and energy use are some of the significant factors in generating emissions as confirmed further by the random effects estimation (0.0096, 1.14, and 0.93 respectively). The results emphasize the necessity of the rapid use of renewable energy, green urbanization, and trade policies that are environmentally friendly. Such synergies would curb the emissions, propel sustainable development and assist the SAARC economies in the process of low carbon development trajectory.</p>

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Impact of Trade Openness on Environmental Degradation in SAARC Countries: An Empirical Analysis Using PMG-ARDL

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月9日

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  • Md. Mominul Islam

摘要

This paper investigates the long and short-term impacts of trade openness, energy use, urbanization, and GDP per capita growth on CO2 emissions in the five SAARC countries: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka; between 1991 and 2023. The findings obtained with the help of the Panel ARDL-PMG estimator partially confirm the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, indicating the region is still in the upward and pollution-intensive stage. The long-term forecasts indicate that the growth in CO2 emissions is 0.011%, 0.47%, 0.004% and 1.30% corresponding to a 1% increase in the GDP per capita growth, urbanization, trade, and energy consumption respectively. The Error Correction Term shows that corrections are made at 21.2% per annum and stabilizes the situation in approximately 4.7 years. The effects of trade, urbanization, and energy use are some of the significant factors in generating emissions as confirmed further by the random effects estimation (0.0096, 1.14, and 0.93 respectively). The results emphasize the necessity of the rapid use of renewable energy, green urbanization, and trade policies that are environmentally friendly. Such synergies would curb the emissions, propel sustainable development and assist the SAARC economies in the process of low carbon development trajectory.