Optimal Policy Choice in Finite Horizon
摘要
The paper aims at an inquiry of the optimal policy path for the major macroeconomic variables most important of which are maintaining a high-income level and a low level of inflation. We develop a policy model in a dynamic framework for finding optimal policy path that helps attain the macroeconomic goals in a finite time. The policy maker's objective is tuned with the electoral cycle for reelection to office in a democratic setup. Hence they are interested in the finite horizon, i.e. prior to the next election. First, we estimate an empirical model in a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework that captures the evolution of the major macroeconomic variables in the given policy environment. We then derive the optimal choice for the policy path that minimises the cost of deviation from the targets for the macroeconomic variables. It is shown that all targets, whether to achieve a GDP level from a regime of low income caused by external shock, such as a pandemic or a recession and/ or a target of low inflation, may not be achievable in a finite time. However, a reasonable target can be achieved with appropriate choice of fiscal-monetary policy rule.