Economic Ripple Effects of COVID-19: A District-Level Panel Analysis of Jobs and Income in Tamil Nadu, India
摘要
Using state-level panel data collected over four rounds of a telephone pulse survey (May 2020–August 2021) from Tamil Nadu, this paper examines the vulnerabilities in livelihoods faced by households during COVID-19. By employing a detailed inter- and intra-district analysis, it studies the disproportionate effects of the pandemic on job and income loss reported by households in Tamil Nadu. Results from the non-linear panel regression highlight an acute susceptibility of lower-middle-income districts to job losses compared to other districts. While low-income districts bore the brunt of job losses at the onset of the pandemic, they exhibited resilience, rebounding effectively by the end of the second wave of COVID-19. In contrast, upper-middle-income districts, which are transitional, reported the most substantial income losses during the initial wave, with a notable improvement as the pandemic progressed. High-income districts demonstrated a delayed yet significant vulnerability to income loss, particularly in the second wave of COVID-19. The findings reveal significant disparities at the district level in Tamil Nadu, leading to an uneven distribution of pandemic-induced economic hardships.