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<p>Groundwater overexploitation has become a major constraint on sustainable development of agriculture in the North China Plain. This study focused on overexploited groundwater areas in Shandong Province, using hydrological and agricultural data from 2000 to 2021. The Tapio decoupling model was applied to assess the relationship between groundwater extraction and grain yield, while the Heckman two-stage model was employed to identify the factors influencing farmers’ adaptive behavior. The results show that grain yield exhibits a stage-specific decoupling from groundwater overexploitation, with significant hydrological dependence: strong decoupling is achieved in wet years, accounting for approximately 62% of the study period, while negative decoupling tends to occur in dry years. Groundwater depth increased from 5.96 to 7.52&#xa0;m, with extraction volume and precipitation exerting considerable influence on yield through irrigation effects. Reducing extraction can slow groundwater decline; however, precipitation variability remains the dominant driver of short-term fluctuations. At the household level, farmers’ subjective perception of overexploitation severity has no significant effect on water-saving preferences, while the actual overexploitation level significantly shapes their adoption behavior. Farmers in severely overexploited areas are more likely to adopt water-saving practices. This study reveals the dynamic decoupling mechanism between groundwater use and grain production and highlights the differentiated characteristics of farmers’ water-saving behavior. Policy efforts should focus on promoting efficient irrigation technologies, implementing region-specific groundwater management, and designing targeted incentive mechanisms.</p>

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Between pumping and planting: a study of groundwater-grain decoupling and farmers’ adaptive behaviors in Shandong, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月30日

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  • Xinxin Li,
  • Shuyi Su

摘要

Groundwater overexploitation has become a major constraint on sustainable development of agriculture in the North China Plain. This study focused on overexploited groundwater areas in Shandong Province, using hydrological and agricultural data from 2000 to 2021. The Tapio decoupling model was applied to assess the relationship between groundwater extraction and grain yield, while the Heckman two-stage model was employed to identify the factors influencing farmers’ adaptive behavior. The results show that grain yield exhibits a stage-specific decoupling from groundwater overexploitation, with significant hydrological dependence: strong decoupling is achieved in wet years, accounting for approximately 62% of the study period, while negative decoupling tends to occur in dry years. Groundwater depth increased from 5.96 to 7.52 m, with extraction volume and precipitation exerting considerable influence on yield through irrigation effects. Reducing extraction can slow groundwater decline; however, precipitation variability remains the dominant driver of short-term fluctuations. At the household level, farmers’ subjective perception of overexploitation severity has no significant effect on water-saving preferences, while the actual overexploitation level significantly shapes their adoption behavior. Farmers in severely overexploited areas are more likely to adopt water-saving practices. This study reveals the dynamic decoupling mechanism between groundwater use and grain production and highlights the differentiated characteristics of farmers’ water-saving behavior. Policy efforts should focus on promoting efficient irrigation technologies, implementing region-specific groundwater management, and designing targeted incentive mechanisms.