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<p>Extreme rainfall events pose increasing challenges for flood risk management and hydraulic infrastructure design in monsoon-dominated river basins such as the Mahanadi. However, existing rainfall frequency studies in the region are largely based on sparse station observations, limiting accurate representation of spatial rainfall variability. The objective of this study is to develop a high-resolution rainfall frequency analysis and isopluvial mapping framework for the Mahanadi Basin, India, using long-term gridded rainfall data and a multi-distribution statistical approach. Daily rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution for the period 1971–2022 were analyzed across 251 grid points. Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of 1-day rainfall were modeled using probability distributions Gumbel, Log-Normal (LN), and Log-Pearson Type III (LP3) and evaluated using goodness of fit tests. Results reveal strong spatial variability in extreme rainfall across the basin. The LN distribution provides the best overall statistical fit across approximately 78% of the basin, while LP3 better represents upper-tail behaviour and yields higher rainfall estimates for long return periods. The estimated 200-year rainfall reaches about 619&#xa0;mm in Balangir under LP3 compared with 522&#xa0;mm using Gumbel, and 469&#xa0;mm in Puri compared with 437&#xa0;mm using Gumbel. Basin-wide design rainfall ranges from about 220&#xa0;mm in northwestern uplands to nearly 720&#xa0;mm in southeastern coastal regions. The resulting high-resolution isopluvial maps improve spatial representation of rainfall extremes and provide region-specific design rainfall estimates for flood-resilient infrastructure planning in the Mahanadi basin.</p>

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High-resolution rainfall frequency analysis and isopluvial mapping using multi-distribution models in the Mahanadi Basin, India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月20日

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  • Md Masood Zafar Ansari,
  • Syed Khateeb Ahmad,
  • Zulfequar Ahmad,
  • Pradeep Kumar Garg,
  • Pramod Kumar Sharma

摘要

Extreme rainfall events pose increasing challenges for flood risk management and hydraulic infrastructure design in monsoon-dominated river basins such as the Mahanadi. However, existing rainfall frequency studies in the region are largely based on sparse station observations, limiting accurate representation of spatial rainfall variability. The objective of this study is to develop a high-resolution rainfall frequency analysis and isopluvial mapping framework for the Mahanadi Basin, India, using long-term gridded rainfall data and a multi-distribution statistical approach. Daily rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution for the period 1971–2022 were analyzed across 251 grid points. Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of 1-day rainfall were modeled using probability distributions Gumbel, Log-Normal (LN), and Log-Pearson Type III (LP3) and evaluated using goodness of fit tests. Results reveal strong spatial variability in extreme rainfall across the basin. The LN distribution provides the best overall statistical fit across approximately 78% of the basin, while LP3 better represents upper-tail behaviour and yields higher rainfall estimates for long return periods. The estimated 200-year rainfall reaches about 619 mm in Balangir under LP3 compared with 522 mm using Gumbel, and 469 mm in Puri compared with 437 mm using Gumbel. Basin-wide design rainfall ranges from about 220 mm in northwestern uplands to nearly 720 mm in southeastern coastal regions. The resulting high-resolution isopluvial maps improve spatial representation of rainfall extremes and provide region-specific design rainfall estimates for flood-resilient infrastructure planning in the Mahanadi basin.