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<p>Climate change has imposed significant and irreversible damage across various ecosystems, including terrestrial, freshwater, cryosphere, coastal, and open ocean environments. This research investigates climate-induced hydrological alterations in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. It employs the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT +) in conjunction with the Indicators of Hydrological Alterations (IHA). The study also used five General Circulation Models (GCMs) as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), specifically ACCESS-CM2, MIROC-ES2L, NESM3, NorESM2-MM, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, analyzed under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2-4.5) and (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. To reduce uncertainties, bias correction of the main SWAT + model input precipitation and temperature was performed using power transformation and linear scaling methods, respectively. Projections indicate a 25.8% to 50.6% increase in precipitation and a 3.9&#xa0;°C to 4.3&#xa0;°C rise in temperature by the late twenty-first century. By the 2080s, median wet season flows could rise 76% under SSP2-4.5 and 103.9% under SSP5-8.5, while dry season flows could decline by 47.5% and 45.2%, respectively. The basin tends to experience increasing median flow, low pulse, and high plus count, which ultimately affect groundwater recharge, ecosystem functions, water quality, nutrient transport, and deposition. Additionally, the basin will experience declines in 30 and 90-day flows and increases in 1, 3, and 7-day flows. The high Range of Variability Index (RVA) values indicates significant alteration of the natural flow regime, reflecting the impact of human activities or climate change. Reservoir operations could be adjusted to ensure sufficient dry-season releases, balancing ecological requirements with water supply security under future climate scenarios.</p>

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Climate-induced hydrological alterations in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月18日

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  • Birhan Getachew Tikuye,
  • Cheng-Zhi Qin,
  • Ram Lakhan Ray

摘要

Climate change has imposed significant and irreversible damage across various ecosystems, including terrestrial, freshwater, cryosphere, coastal, and open ocean environments. This research investigates climate-induced hydrological alterations in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. It employs the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT +) in conjunction with the Indicators of Hydrological Alterations (IHA). The study also used five General Circulation Models (GCMs) as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), specifically ACCESS-CM2, MIROC-ES2L, NESM3, NorESM2-MM, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, analyzed under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2-4.5) and (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. To reduce uncertainties, bias correction of the main SWAT + model input precipitation and temperature was performed using power transformation and linear scaling methods, respectively. Projections indicate a 25.8% to 50.6% increase in precipitation and a 3.9 °C to 4.3 °C rise in temperature by the late twenty-first century. By the 2080s, median wet season flows could rise 76% under SSP2-4.5 and 103.9% under SSP5-8.5, while dry season flows could decline by 47.5% and 45.2%, respectively. The basin tends to experience increasing median flow, low pulse, and high plus count, which ultimately affect groundwater recharge, ecosystem functions, water quality, nutrient transport, and deposition. Additionally, the basin will experience declines in 30 and 90-day flows and increases in 1, 3, and 7-day flows. The high Range of Variability Index (RVA) values indicates significant alteration of the natural flow regime, reflecting the impact of human activities or climate change. Reservoir operations could be adjusted to ensure sufficient dry-season releases, balancing ecological requirements with water supply security under future climate scenarios.