Investigating the criteria for resilience and adaptability of groundwater resources using fuzzy Delphi in the catchment area of lake urmia
摘要
The depletion and the excessive extraction of groundwater resources in recent years led to land subsidence, the drying of aquatic ecosystems, and socio-economic drought. Therefore, this research aims to identify and examine the criteria, variables, indicators, and effective factors in the resilience and adaptability of groundwater resources, and to thoroughly analyze these indicators in the catchment area of Lake Urmia. To accurately identify the indicators and factors affecting the reduction of groundwater resources and principled exploitation in sustainable development, using the Fuzzy Delphi method, 31 influential factors and 11 indicators related to social, economic, and environmental variables in the catchment area of Lake Urmia were identified. The results of completing 20 questionnaires from experts in the first round of this study led to the elimination of the environmental variable. The descriptive prioritization of the results from the second round to prevent excessive extraction of groundwater resources showed that the effective factors in programs related to the economic variable in the indicators of preventing land use change and strict enforcement of laws in the governance system and government policies in aquifer extraction (available water permit) and programs related to the social variable, skill development in occupations with less dependence on water resources, have the highest priority from the experts’ perspective. Therefore, considering eliminating the environmental variable, achieving resilience criteria, and creating adaptability, and coordination between social and economic variables programs to formulate low-consumption activities and alternative livelihoods based on the catchment area capacity are effective.