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<p>Water supply to cities experiencing drought episodes is an important challenge for decision-makers, especially from a sustainable development perspective. The present study aims to assess factors affecting household access to, consumption of, and conservation of drinking water in the semi-arid city of Amboasary-Atsimo in southern Madagascar, which has overcome severe water scarcity. Data were collected through a field survey of 386 households and analyzed using a combination of machine learning based on a random forests (RF) algorithm and structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of this research revealed significant disparities between households in terms of access to water within the city. 330 households depend on external sources, of which 76.7% have no access to water. Random forests identified 16 factors affecting household access to water during drought (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). This article shows the important relationship between access to water and insufficient food access. The variance explained by socio-psychological and behavioral factors on water consumption and conservation increases from 2 to 17% and from 97 to 99%, respectively, after including drought risk perception and type of water supply sources in the structural model. Households are more likely to adopt water conservation behaviors when they have positive habits and emotions, strong involvement in personal water-saving initiatives, and greater awareness of the impacts of drought on water availability. Socio-psychological and behavioral factors need to be taken into account when developing water supply policies and strategies for drought-affected cities. It is suggested that perceptions of drought risk should be considered when studying the behavior of water consumers.</p>

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Household water consumption, access and conservation in the semi-arid city of Amboasary-Atsimo (southern Madagascar): an approach coupling random forests and structural equation modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月1日

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  • Moïse Musubao Kapiri,
  • Jonathan Ahadi Mahamba,
  • Yameogo Nassirou,
  • Amédée Baga,
  • Rebecca Zolalaina Rakotomanga,
  • Koufanou Hien,
  • Florence De Longueville,
  • Pierre Ozer

摘要

Water supply to cities experiencing drought episodes is an important challenge for decision-makers, especially from a sustainable development perspective. The present study aims to assess factors affecting household access to, consumption of, and conservation of drinking water in the semi-arid city of Amboasary-Atsimo in southern Madagascar, which has overcome severe water scarcity. Data were collected through a field survey of 386 households and analyzed using a combination of machine learning based on a random forests (RF) algorithm and structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of this research revealed significant disparities between households in terms of access to water within the city. 330 households depend on external sources, of which 76.7% have no access to water. Random forests identified 16 factors affecting household access to water during drought (p < 0.05). This article shows the important relationship between access to water and insufficient food access. The variance explained by socio-psychological and behavioral factors on water consumption and conservation increases from 2 to 17% and from 97 to 99%, respectively, after including drought risk perception and type of water supply sources in the structural model. Households are more likely to adopt water conservation behaviors when they have positive habits and emotions, strong involvement in personal water-saving initiatives, and greater awareness of the impacts of drought on water availability. Socio-psychological and behavioral factors need to be taken into account when developing water supply policies and strategies for drought-affected cities. It is suggested that perceptions of drought risk should be considered when studying the behavior of water consumers.