Scholarlink

<p>Climatic changes and extreme events have a direct impact on hydrological cycle and hydroclimatic studies can subsidize water resources management. This study assesses historical and future water availability scenarios regarding natural flow in the Alto Tietê watershed in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, where the São Lourenço Water Supply System is located and used as one of the main water sources for São Paulo Metropolitan Region. For the current hydroclimatic characterization of the study area, monthly observed data on rainfall, temperature, potential evapotranspiration and flow were used. A hydrological model and four global climate models were used to analyze future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) in different time slices. In general, projected average flow decreased throughout the period of projection (2015–2100). Annual decrease was 2&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup>/s and 5&#xa0;m<sup>3</sup>/s under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The monthly difference results between the historical period and both future scenarios suggest a gradual reduction in water availability, with a shorter wet season, posing a risk to water security during dry season. Climate projection information in this study is relevant to subsidizing public policies development and recommendations on São Paulo Metropolitan Region water use management.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Assessment of future water availability scenarios for São Lourenço supply system watershed in São Paulo, Brazil

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月16日

查看全文
  • Gabrielle Gomes Calado,
  • María Cleofé Valverde

摘要

Climatic changes and extreme events have a direct impact on hydrological cycle and hydroclimatic studies can subsidize water resources management. This study assesses historical and future water availability scenarios regarding natural flow in the Alto Tietê watershed in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, where the São Lourenço Water Supply System is located and used as one of the main water sources for São Paulo Metropolitan Region. For the current hydroclimatic characterization of the study area, monthly observed data on rainfall, temperature, potential evapotranspiration and flow were used. A hydrological model and four global climate models were used to analyze future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) in different time slices. In general, projected average flow decreased throughout the period of projection (2015–2100). Annual decrease was 2 m3/s and 5 m3/s under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The monthly difference results between the historical period and both future scenarios suggest a gradual reduction in water availability, with a shorter wet season, posing a risk to water security during dry season. Climate projection information in this study is relevant to subsidizing public policies development and recommendations on São Paulo Metropolitan Region water use management.