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<p>China is a large agricultural country. Drought risk assessment is of great significance in ensuring food security, optimizing water resource management and reducing economic losses. The Aquacrop model is a crop model based on the relationship between yield response to moisture. In this study, the daily scale Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI) was taken as the drought indicator and Copula multidimensional joint distribution theory was utilized to calculate the drought joint frequency. Different irrigation systems represented different drought resistance capabilities. Based on the Aquacrop model, a quantitative relationship between different drought frequencies and possible yield losses under specific drought resistance abilities was established. A drought risk assessment was conducted based on analysis of “drought frequency-drought resistance ability-agricultural drought loss”, and the optimal irrigation system under different irrigation quotas was formulated to provide technical support for agricultural production. The results indicated that (1) under the irrigation quota of 675&#xa0;m³/ha, the drought risk was lowest when irrigated only during seedling stage, with a loss rate of less than 5%. (2) Under the irrigation quota of 1500&#xa0;m³/ha, the drought risk was lowest when the irrigation quota during the seedling stage was 900&#xa0;m³/ha and the booting stage was 600&#xa0;m³/ha, with a loss rate of less than 1%. (3) After implementing appropriate irrigation measures for summer maize, the economic gains of summer maize increased significantly, reaching over 10%.</p>

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Drought risk assessment of summer maize based on aquacrop model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月23日

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  • Manjin Zhang,
  • Maolin Xu,
  • Fawen Li

摘要

China is a large agricultural country. Drought risk assessment is of great significance in ensuring food security, optimizing water resource management and reducing economic losses. The Aquacrop model is a crop model based on the relationship between yield response to moisture. In this study, the daily scale Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI) was taken as the drought indicator and Copula multidimensional joint distribution theory was utilized to calculate the drought joint frequency. Different irrigation systems represented different drought resistance capabilities. Based on the Aquacrop model, a quantitative relationship between different drought frequencies and possible yield losses under specific drought resistance abilities was established. A drought risk assessment was conducted based on analysis of “drought frequency-drought resistance ability-agricultural drought loss”, and the optimal irrigation system under different irrigation quotas was formulated to provide technical support for agricultural production. The results indicated that (1) under the irrigation quota of 675 m³/ha, the drought risk was lowest when irrigated only during seedling stage, with a loss rate of less than 5%. (2) Under the irrigation quota of 1500 m³/ha, the drought risk was lowest when the irrigation quota during the seedling stage was 900 m³/ha and the booting stage was 600 m³/ha, with a loss rate of less than 1%. (3) After implementing appropriate irrigation measures for summer maize, the economic gains of summer maize increased significantly, reaching over 10%.