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<p>This paper examines how green finance fosters institutional and structural transformation in China’s manufacturing sector through the mechanism of finance–industry integration. Drawing on provincial panel data spanning 2010–2023, a Green Finance Index is constructed via the entropy method, while manufacturing upgrading is evaluated using a Super-Efficiency SBM model that accounts for undesirable outputs. The degree of finance–industry integration is quantified through a coupling–coordination model, and dynamic relationships are assessed using the System GMM estimator. Empirical results indicate that green finance significantly promotes manufacturing upgrading, while the indirect effect—mediated by finance–industry integration—is both more substantial and more persistent than the direct effect. Provinces with higher technological capacity and stronger environmental constraints exhibit deeper integration and greater upgrading efficiency, confirming the co-evolutionary relationship between financial and industrial systems under China’s dual-carbon goals. These findings extend the analytical and institutional understanding of green finance by demonstrating that its transformative impact depends on the depth of institutional integration rather than financial scale alone. The study offers policy insights to enhance coordinated financial–industrial reforms, refine regional green finance frameworks, and leverage environmental pressure as a driver of sustainable manufacturing transformation.</p>

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Green finance, institutional integration, and manufacturing upgrading in China: evidence from system GMM and coupling coordination models

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月31日

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  • Minjue Wu,
  • Dhekra Ben Amara,
  • Ziqian Zhao

摘要

This paper examines how green finance fosters institutional and structural transformation in China’s manufacturing sector through the mechanism of finance–industry integration. Drawing on provincial panel data spanning 2010–2023, a Green Finance Index is constructed via the entropy method, while manufacturing upgrading is evaluated using a Super-Efficiency SBM model that accounts for undesirable outputs. The degree of finance–industry integration is quantified through a coupling–coordination model, and dynamic relationships are assessed using the System GMM estimator. Empirical results indicate that green finance significantly promotes manufacturing upgrading, while the indirect effect—mediated by finance–industry integration—is both more substantial and more persistent than the direct effect. Provinces with higher technological capacity and stronger environmental constraints exhibit deeper integration and greater upgrading efficiency, confirming the co-evolutionary relationship between financial and industrial systems under China’s dual-carbon goals. These findings extend the analytical and institutional understanding of green finance by demonstrating that its transformative impact depends on the depth of institutional integration rather than financial scale alone. The study offers policy insights to enhance coordinated financial–industrial reforms, refine regional green finance frameworks, and leverage environmental pressure as a driver of sustainable manufacturing transformation.