Spatial distribution and identification of potential risk regions of rice sheath blight disease in Karnataka, India
摘要
Sheath blight (Shb) disease is a major constraint to rice production, leading to significant yield losses globally. The disease has increased in recent years due to intensive cultivation coupled with growing of susceptible cultivars. This study employed advanced geostatistical techniques to assess the spatial distribution of Shb in Karnataka, India, over two consecutive cropping seasons (Kharif 2021 and 2022). A total of 110 sampling sites were surveyed covering 14 major rice-growing districts. Disease severity was recorded and analyzed using geostatistical approaches viz., Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Indicator Kriging (IK), Moran’s I statistic, and Ripley’s K-function. The results revealed distinct spatial clustering of Shb, with high-severity hotspots (> 40% PDI) observed in Davanagere, Shimoga, Mandya, and Haveri districts. Conversely, low-severity cold spots (< 15% PDI) were recorded in Belgaum, Uttara Kannada, and Dharwad. Moran’s I analysis confirmed strong positive spatial autocorrelation in high-disease regions, while Ripley’s K-function indicated significant Shb aggregation, particularly at short distances, suggesting localized spread. A comparative assessment of IDW-generated maps demonstrated an eastward and southward expansion of Shb severity, indicating more significant heterogeneity in Shb spread. Semivariogram modeling identified the spherical model as the best fit, confirming strong spatial dependence. The probability risk assessment highlighted Mandya, Raichur, and Koppal as high-risk zones, necessitating immediate intervention, while northern Karnataka remained less diseased zones. This study provides crucial epidemiological insights into the spatial distribution of Shb, facilitating site-specific disease management strategies. The findings underscore the need for breeding programs focused on developing resistant rice cultivars tailored to Karnataka’s agroecosystems.