<p>The hot metal is the primary raw material in steel manufacturing process, of which production process involves numerous substance conversions and complex high-temperature, high-pressure chemical reactions. The manufacturing process of hot metal causes substantial energy consumption and CO₂ emission, therefore, achieving energy conservation and carbon reduction in this process, while maintaining the quality of hot metal, has become urgent. Previous studies have been insufficient in optimizing the ironmaking process by developing precise models, formulating detailed strategies for energy conservation and carbon reduction, and supporting energy and carbon management of the ironmaking plant. Therefore, we developed a process simulation model based on white box and proposed a quantitative decision-making method, which fully consider and integrate the conversion mechanisms of key elements such as iron, carbon, and oxygen, as well as other physicochemical reaction mechanisms, to analyze and optimize the ironmaking process by combining thermodynamic analysis, carbon quantification, and economic performance evaluation. After optimization, the exergy loss, carbon emissions, and cost are reduced from 2267.25 MJ/t-HM, 648.21 kg/t-HM, and 568.96 CNY/t-HM to 2050.99 MJ/t-HM, 595.75 kg/t-HM, and 525.01 CNY/t-HM, respectively, corresponding to reduction rates of 9.54%, 8.09%, and 7.72%. Furthermore, we conducted a quantitative analysis and clarified the disturbance mechanisms affecting multiple indicators due to the variations in five categories of key factors. The results indicate that adjusting the production structure, compositional, technical and economic parameters play a significant role in regulating the thermodynamic, economic, and environmental performance of the ironmaking system.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>