<p>The rapid development of new energy vehicles (NEV) is a key strategy for China’s pursuit of sustainable development, but it also presents challenges in the recycling of end-of-life batteries. This study focuses on the power batteries of NEV and aims to explore the recycling potential of end-of-life batteries. First, this research employs the Grey Relation Analysis and Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (GRA–BiLSTM) model combined with the Weibull distribution to forecast the quantity of end-of-life batteries in China from 2024 to 2040. Additionally, scenario analysis is used to explore the metal recovery potential of end-of-life batteries and assess the economic and environmental benefits of battery recycling under various scenarios. Results show that (1) the future growth in NEV will generate significant demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel. By 2040, under specific scenarios, the demand for lithium, cobalt and nickel is projected to peak at 349, 267, and 1772 kt, respectively, exceeding China’s current supply capabilities. (2) Recycling end-of-life batteries can significantly meet the demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel metals required for NEV development. By 2040, metal recovery from end-of-life batteries could potentially meet up to 52.8% of lithium demand, 63.1% of cobalt demand, and 50.2% of nickel demand. (3) Economically, recycling end-of-life batteries could yield substantial benefits, with estimated economic gains from metal recycling ranging from $12.5 to $27.8 billion across various scenarios. In conclusion, the effective recycling of retired batteries is crucial for alleviating China’s supply pressures on metal resources and for promoting sustainable development within the NEV sector.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>