Tail dependence and systemic risk spillovers between green bond and G7 stock markets
摘要
Using copulas and conditional Value at Risk models, this study explores the tail dependence and risk spillovers between green bond (GB) and G7 stock markets pre- and during coronavirus as well as the Ukraine–Russia tension. Prior to the pandemic, the results show average dependence between GB and stock markets of France, Canada, Germany, Italy and UK. Moreover, GB is dependent on US stock markets during bullish market conditions. A symmetric tail dependence characterizes the relationships between GB and Japanese stock markets. Particularly important, the dependence pattern between GB and G7 stock markets is vulnerable to pandemic. Specifically, we show a dependence during bearish (bullish) market conditions for France, Germany, Italy and US (UK) whereas a symmetric tail dependence is obtained for Canada and Japan. A zero tail-dependence is observed between Japan and GB market during Ukraine–Russia tension. Furthermore, GB shows a symmetric (asymmetric) tail dependence with stock markets of Canada, Germany, Italy and US (France and UK). The results show evidence of dynamic bidirectional risk spillovers, which become more pronounced early 2020 which corresponds to the first wave of coronavirus. Before the pandemic, the size of upside spillovers from GB to stocks is higher than those from stocks to GB. The downside spillovers from GB to stock markets are weak compared to those from stock to GB markets. Italy is the highest receiver of upside spillovers from GB. The size of spillovers from GB to stock markets is obvious during the pandemic for all cases whereas from stock markets to GB during Ukraine- Russia tension. Our findings have direct repercussions on funds allocation and portfolio management.