<p>Monkeypox, a zoonotic infectious disease, has emerged as a major public health concern in recent years, particularly due to its capacity for human-to-human and environmental transmission. This study introduces a novel eight-compartment SVEAIHRC model that incorporates direct, asymptomatic, and environmental transmission pathways along with vaccination and hospitalization effects to better capture the dynamics of mpox spread. The model is analytically investigated to ensure positivity, boundedness, and stability of its solutions, and the basic reproduction number is derived using the next-generation matrix approach. To address the limitations of conventional computational approaches, a modified Physics-Informed Neural Network framework is developed, embedding physical constraints into the training process and employing Chebyshev-based clustering to enhance boundary accuracy. Quantitative validation demonstrates that the proposed method achieves excellent agreement with reference data, with average errors across compartments remaining very low, RMSE <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\le 0.0026\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, MAE <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\le 0.0018\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R^2\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> consistently exceeding 0.996 over 10 independent trials. Sensitivity analysis, conducted using Sobol and elasticity indices, highlights the key influence of asymptomatic transmission (<InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(+0.507\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), symptomatic transmission (<InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(+0.493\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), and the probability of asymptomatic progression (<InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(+0.295\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), while recovery-related parameters exert strong mitigating effects. These findings provide actionable insights for public health strategies, emphasizing the importance of enhanced asymptomatic screening, optimized vaccination schedules, and immunity maintenance programs. Taken together, this study demonstrates the innovative integration of epidemiological modeling with neural network–based solvers, establishing a powerful tool for real-time prediction and control of complex infectious diseases such as mpox.</p>

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A Boundary-Aware PINN Framework for Monkeypox Transmission Dynamics Using Chebyshev-Distributed Collocation

  • Jamshaid Ul Rahman,
  • Momina Arshad,
  • Noreen Mustafa

摘要

Monkeypox, a zoonotic infectious disease, has emerged as a major public health concern in recent years, particularly due to its capacity for human-to-human and environmental transmission. This study introduces a novel eight-compartment SVEAIHRC model that incorporates direct, asymptomatic, and environmental transmission pathways along with vaccination and hospitalization effects to better capture the dynamics of mpox spread. The model is analytically investigated to ensure positivity, boundedness, and stability of its solutions, and the basic reproduction number is derived using the next-generation matrix approach. To address the limitations of conventional computational approaches, a modified Physics-Informed Neural Network framework is developed, embedding physical constraints into the training process and employing Chebyshev-based clustering to enhance boundary accuracy. Quantitative validation demonstrates that the proposed method achieves excellent agreement with reference data, with average errors across compartments remaining very low, RMSE \(\le 0.0026\) , MAE \(\le 0.0018\) , and \(R^2\) consistently exceeding 0.996 over 10 independent trials. Sensitivity analysis, conducted using Sobol and elasticity indices, highlights the key influence of asymptomatic transmission ( \(+0.507\) ), symptomatic transmission ( \(+0.493\) ), and the probability of asymptomatic progression ( \(+0.295\) ), while recovery-related parameters exert strong mitigating effects. These findings provide actionable insights for public health strategies, emphasizing the importance of enhanced asymptomatic screening, optimized vaccination schedules, and immunity maintenance programs. Taken together, this study demonstrates the innovative integration of epidemiological modeling with neural network–based solvers, establishing a powerful tool for real-time prediction and control of complex infectious diseases such as mpox.