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<p>This study theoretically investigated the dynamic variability of the expected potentially affected fraction (EPAF) by quantifying environmental risks stemming from exposure to toxic chemicals. First, considering EPAF as a moment and solving a Fokker–Planck equation for the probability density function (PDF) of the concentration of a chemical in the human body, a time evolution equation for EPAF was derived and interpreted to show that incremental change of EPAF depends on overlaps in the PDF, species sensitivity, and the insensitive fraction. Second, the chemical budget was examined by solving a stochastic differential equation, finding solutions of the PDF to elucidate the influence of stochastic uncertainty on solutions. Third, an effective approximate analytical method for determining EPAF was proposed and demonstrated for computing variable EPAF.</p>

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Theory and Model for Dynamics of Expected Potentially Affected Fraction as a Measure of Environmental Risk Due to Toxic Substance Accumulation

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月29日

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  • Yoshiki Nishi,
  • Kento Kikuma

摘要

This study theoretically investigated the dynamic variability of the expected potentially affected fraction (EPAF) by quantifying environmental risks stemming from exposure to toxic chemicals. First, considering EPAF as a moment and solving a Fokker–Planck equation for the probability density function (PDF) of the concentration of a chemical in the human body, a time evolution equation for EPAF was derived and interpreted to show that incremental change of EPAF depends on overlaps in the PDF, species sensitivity, and the insensitive fraction. Second, the chemical budget was examined by solving a stochastic differential equation, finding solutions of the PDF to elucidate the influence of stochastic uncertainty on solutions. Third, an effective approximate analytical method for determining EPAF was proposed and demonstrated for computing variable EPAF.