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<p>Despite extensive literature on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and corporate innovation, the conditions under which EPU promotes or hinders innovation remain unclear. This study addresses this gap by examining the impact of EPU on corporate innovation in Chinese A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2022, employing a fixed-effects panel model to address unobserved heterogeneity and instrumental variable (IV) methods to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Using patent applications as the primary innovation metric and the Baker et al. (in Quarter J Econ, 131:1593–1636, 2016). EPU index adapted to China, our analysis reveals a marginally significant negative relationship between EPU and corporate innovation, consistent with real options theory. However, this effect is context-dependent: state-owned enterprises (SOEs) exhibit weaker sensitivity to EPU due to preferential financing and policy buffers, while high-tech and high-polluting industries experience amplified innovation suppression. Robustness checks—including alternative EPU proxies, lagged models, and R&amp;D human capital controls—confirm the findings. Contrary to purely inhibitory narratives, heterogeneity analysis uncovers conditional opportunities: SOEs in policy-aligned sectors and firms with financial resilience demonstrate adaptive innovation strategies under uncertainty. These results highlight EPU’s dual role: it acts as both a barrier and a catalyst, contingent on institutional and resource-based factors. Methodologically, the study advances the literature by integrating ownership, industry, and regional heterogeneities, while policy implications emphasize balancing stability with strategic competition to harness uncertainty’s dynamic potential.</p>

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The impact of economic policy uncertainty on innovation in Chinese enterprises

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月6日

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  • Tang Guoru,
  • J. S. Keshminder,
  • Azlul Kalilah Zaghol,
  • Abdul Rahim Ridzuan

摘要

Despite extensive literature on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and corporate innovation, the conditions under which EPU promotes or hinders innovation remain unclear. This study addresses this gap by examining the impact of EPU on corporate innovation in Chinese A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2022, employing a fixed-effects panel model to address unobserved heterogeneity and instrumental variable (IV) methods to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Using patent applications as the primary innovation metric and the Baker et al. (in Quarter J Econ, 131:1593–1636, 2016). EPU index adapted to China, our analysis reveals a marginally significant negative relationship between EPU and corporate innovation, consistent with real options theory. However, this effect is context-dependent: state-owned enterprises (SOEs) exhibit weaker sensitivity to EPU due to preferential financing and policy buffers, while high-tech and high-polluting industries experience amplified innovation suppression. Robustness checks—including alternative EPU proxies, lagged models, and R&D human capital controls—confirm the findings. Contrary to purely inhibitory narratives, heterogeneity analysis uncovers conditional opportunities: SOEs in policy-aligned sectors and firms with financial resilience demonstrate adaptive innovation strategies under uncertainty. These results highlight EPU’s dual role: it acts as both a barrier and a catalyst, contingent on institutional and resource-based factors. Methodologically, the study advances the literature by integrating ownership, industry, and regional heterogeneities, while policy implications emphasize balancing stability with strategic competition to harness uncertainty’s dynamic potential.