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<p>While Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) such as wetland restoration have emerged as a promising strategy to enhance catchment-scale water retention, their performance in regional, human-dominated catchments remains underexplored. To address this gap, this study evaluates the hydrological impacts of strategic wetland restoration in the Linge catchment, the Netherlands, using the SWAT+ hydrological model under current and future climate scenarios. KNMI climate change scenarios for 2050 were applied across five distinct wetland configurations of varying sizes and spatial setups to assess their mitigation potential. Results show that converting agricultural land to wetlands reduces the continuous baseline flood peak by 11.7%, while achieving an average peak reduction of 33.2% across eight isolated extreme rainfall events. The benefits are highly scale-dependent: peak attenuation requires extensive catchment conversion, while decentralized layouts are more effective for baseflow support. Under future climate scenarios, NBS show critical structural limitations. The KNMI wet scenario produces a + 75.4% peak surge relative to the baseline scenario, which wetland restoration reduces to + 39.5%. Conversely, under dry conditions, intensive centralized wetlands exacerbate water scarcity due to enhanced summer evapotranspiration, expanding the mean future drought duration to 60.1 days and reducing the regulatory low flow (7Q10) to 0.070&#xa0;m³/s. These findings demonstrate that NBS effectiveness is strongly scenario-dependent and requires integration with grey infrastructure for comprehensive climate resilience.</p>

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Evaluating the hydrological impacts of wetland restoration in a Dutch small catchment under future climate scenarios using SWAT+

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月3日

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  • Patit Chotemankongsin,
  • Samuel Jonson Sutanto,
  • Inge E. M. de Graaf,
  • Jantsje M. van Loon-Steensma

摘要

While Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) such as wetland restoration have emerged as a promising strategy to enhance catchment-scale water retention, their performance in regional, human-dominated catchments remains underexplored. To address this gap, this study evaluates the hydrological impacts of strategic wetland restoration in the Linge catchment, the Netherlands, using the SWAT+ hydrological model under current and future climate scenarios. KNMI climate change scenarios for 2050 were applied across five distinct wetland configurations of varying sizes and spatial setups to assess their mitigation potential. Results show that converting agricultural land to wetlands reduces the continuous baseline flood peak by 11.7%, while achieving an average peak reduction of 33.2% across eight isolated extreme rainfall events. The benefits are highly scale-dependent: peak attenuation requires extensive catchment conversion, while decentralized layouts are more effective for baseflow support. Under future climate scenarios, NBS show critical structural limitations. The KNMI wet scenario produces a + 75.4% peak surge relative to the baseline scenario, which wetland restoration reduces to + 39.5%. Conversely, under dry conditions, intensive centralized wetlands exacerbate water scarcity due to enhanced summer evapotranspiration, expanding the mean future drought duration to 60.1 days and reducing the regulatory low flow (7Q10) to 0.070 m³/s. These findings demonstrate that NBS effectiveness is strongly scenario-dependent and requires integration with grey infrastructure for comprehensive climate resilience.