Scholarlink

<p>Climate change impacts hydrologic processes, particularly in semi-arid regions where water resources are vulnerable to climatic and hydrologic variability. The R’Dom watershed in Morocco, a critical source of water for agriculture and domestic use, faces increasing threats from shifting precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, and growing water demand. This study applied an integrated framework combining the soil and water assessment tool plus (SWAT+) and the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to assess climate change impacts on water balance components under representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Climate projections were downscaled using SDSM for the near future (ST: 2014–2043), medium future (MT: 2044–2071), and long future (LT: 2072–2100) periods. SWAT + was calibrated and validated using monthly observed discharge data from 2002 to 2013, achieving determination coefficient (R²) values of 0.77 for calibration and 0.70 for validation. The model performance was further confirmed by the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.60 and 0.72 during calibration and validation, respectively. Overall, all models predicted a marked decrease in streamflow, i.e., 47.67% (ST), 48.44% (MT), and 45.63% (LT) under RCP 2.6; 44.23–43.00% from ST to LT under RCP 4.5; and 47.72% (ST), 47.93% (MT), and 52.20% (LT) under RCP 8.5, primarily due to heightened water stress. By integrating SWAT + and SDSM, this study provides a scalable hydrological modeling framework applicable to other semi-arid watersheds. These findings contribute to advancing sustainable development goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (climate action), by supporting adaptive water management strategies and resilience planning.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Navigating water security in semi-arid regions: SWAT+-based analysis of climate change impacts in Morocco’s R’Dom watershed

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月31日

查看全文
  • Abdennabi Alitane,
  • Ali Essahlaoui,
  • Mohamed Ouarani,
  • Ahmed M. Saqr,
  • Sabine Sauvage,
  • Ann Griensven

摘要

Climate change impacts hydrologic processes, particularly in semi-arid regions where water resources are vulnerable to climatic and hydrologic variability. The R’Dom watershed in Morocco, a critical source of water for agriculture and domestic use, faces increasing threats from shifting precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, and growing water demand. This study applied an integrated framework combining the soil and water assessment tool plus (SWAT+) and the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to assess climate change impacts on water balance components under representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Climate projections were downscaled using SDSM for the near future (ST: 2014–2043), medium future (MT: 2044–2071), and long future (LT: 2072–2100) periods. SWAT + was calibrated and validated using monthly observed discharge data from 2002 to 2013, achieving determination coefficient (R²) values of 0.77 for calibration and 0.70 for validation. The model performance was further confirmed by the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.60 and 0.72 during calibration and validation, respectively. Overall, all models predicted a marked decrease in streamflow, i.e., 47.67% (ST), 48.44% (MT), and 45.63% (LT) under RCP 2.6; 44.23–43.00% from ST to LT under RCP 4.5; and 47.72% (ST), 47.93% (MT), and 52.20% (LT) under RCP 8.5, primarily due to heightened water stress. By integrating SWAT + and SDSM, this study provides a scalable hydrological modeling framework applicable to other semi-arid watersheds. These findings contribute to advancing sustainable development goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (climate action), by supporting adaptive water management strategies and resilience planning.