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<p>Modeling current and future ecological risks, considering existing land use conditions, is essential to sustainable land management. This study aims to simulate the dynamics of land use change using the PLUS model and evaluate landscape ecological risks with a multi-scenario approach to support sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the Maspo Sub-watershed area, located on the slopes of the Welirang tropical volcano, Indonesia. The analysis results indicates that the upstream zone is predominantly characterized by low to very low-risk, with a gradient of increasing risk from high to very high-in the middle to downstream areas. Industrial forest land decreased significantly in 2003 and was replaced by natural forest, which led to the expansion of the ecological area. The distribution of landscape ecological risks improved from 1998 to 2023. The middle part of the Maspo Sub-watershed is the most unstable ecological zone, with land fragmentation caused by dynamic land use conversion. Multi-scenario simulations for the SDGs in 2033 showed mixed results. The economic development and agricultural land protection scenarios indicated increased ecological risks compared to 2023, while the ecological protection scenario minimized the decline in ecological quality of the Maspo Sub-watershed. Anthropogenic land expansion has led to increased land fragmentation and loss index, thereby increasing ecological risks. Therefore, policymakers must protect natural forests, especially since the study area is prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. This research highlights the need for active collaboration among researchers, the community, and the government to achieve the sustainability of SDGs in the Sub-Watershed, which area is a crucial part of disaster risk reduction and sustainable development.</p>

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Modeling future landscape ecological risk (LER) under multi-scenario simulation: a PLUS-based approach in the tropical young volcano area, Maspo Sub-watershed

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月1日

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  • Heni Masruroh,
  • Fatchur Rohman,
  • Daya Negri Wijaya,
  • Choirul Anam,
  • Moh Awaludin Adam,
  • Kresno Sastro Bangun Utomo,
  • Bintang Harfian,
  • Farhan Farhan

摘要

Modeling current and future ecological risks, considering existing land use conditions, is essential to sustainable land management. This study aims to simulate the dynamics of land use change using the PLUS model and evaluate landscape ecological risks with a multi-scenario approach to support sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the Maspo Sub-watershed area, located on the slopes of the Welirang tropical volcano, Indonesia. The analysis results indicates that the upstream zone is predominantly characterized by low to very low-risk, with a gradient of increasing risk from high to very high-in the middle to downstream areas. Industrial forest land decreased significantly in 2003 and was replaced by natural forest, which led to the expansion of the ecological area. The distribution of landscape ecological risks improved from 1998 to 2023. The middle part of the Maspo Sub-watershed is the most unstable ecological zone, with land fragmentation caused by dynamic land use conversion. Multi-scenario simulations for the SDGs in 2033 showed mixed results. The economic development and agricultural land protection scenarios indicated increased ecological risks compared to 2023, while the ecological protection scenario minimized the decline in ecological quality of the Maspo Sub-watershed. Anthropogenic land expansion has led to increased land fragmentation and loss index, thereby increasing ecological risks. Therefore, policymakers must protect natural forests, especially since the study area is prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. This research highlights the need for active collaboration among researchers, the community, and the government to achieve the sustainability of SDGs in the Sub-Watershed, which area is a crucial part of disaster risk reduction and sustainable development.