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<p>Climate and land use change impact assessment is crucial for strategic planning in many sectors, including agricultural water management. This study assessed the impact of land use and climate change on water availability in the Tiélé catchment using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Four bias-corrected Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and a land use scenario assuming the conversion of all land use categories (savanna and fallow lands) except water bodies and protected forest to croplands and urbanization areas, were integrated into the calibrated SWAT model. In comparison to the historical period (1976–2005), the climate model ensemble indicated an increase in mean annual surface runoff up to 4.3% and 13.9% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the near-future period results (2021–2050), respectively. Regarding the impact of the land use scenario, a significant increase in monthly surface runoff and water yield of about 20&#xa0;mm is depicted while lateral flow and potential evapotranspiration indicated more decrease of about 5&#xa0;mm and 10&#xa0;mm respectively during the rainy season. In addition, the climate ensemble mean projected an increase in annual discharge up to 2.9% under RCP4.5 and 6.7% under the higher radiative forcing scenario. Moreover, under both land use and future climate change, streamflow may increase up to 10% and 14% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The achieved results can be used by decision makers to develop strategies to adapt to increasing climate change and enhance resilience across sectors including the small-scale farming systems in the Tiélé catchment.</p>

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Modeling climate and land use change impacts on the hydrology of the Tiélé catchment, Benin, West Africa

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月3日

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  • Quentin Fiacre Togbévi,
  • Yacouba Yira,
  • Kéhounbiova Audrey Tohoun,
  • Mathieu Maurice Ahouansou,
  • Aymar Yaovi Bossa,
  • Luc Ollivier Sintondji

摘要

Climate and land use change impact assessment is crucial for strategic planning in many sectors, including agricultural water management. This study assessed the impact of land use and climate change on water availability in the Tiélé catchment using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Four bias-corrected Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and a land use scenario assuming the conversion of all land use categories (savanna and fallow lands) except water bodies and protected forest to croplands and urbanization areas, were integrated into the calibrated SWAT model. In comparison to the historical period (1976–2005), the climate model ensemble indicated an increase in mean annual surface runoff up to 4.3% and 13.9% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the near-future period results (2021–2050), respectively. Regarding the impact of the land use scenario, a significant increase in monthly surface runoff and water yield of about 20 mm is depicted while lateral flow and potential evapotranspiration indicated more decrease of about 5 mm and 10 mm respectively during the rainy season. In addition, the climate ensemble mean projected an increase in annual discharge up to 2.9% under RCP4.5 and 6.7% under the higher radiative forcing scenario. Moreover, under both land use and future climate change, streamflow may increase up to 10% and 14% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The achieved results can be used by decision makers to develop strategies to adapt to increasing climate change and enhance resilience across sectors including the small-scale farming systems in the Tiélé catchment.