<p>Assessing and quantifying the condition and drivers of land cover/land use (LCLU) alteration is crucial for identifying vulnerable areas to environmental and ecological degradation and strategizing sustainable environmental services. With an emphasis on the Lower Zab River Basin (LZRB) in northern Iraq, this research aims to examine the dynamics of LCLU and their influences on Land Surface Temperature (LST). The maximum likelihood classifier and Landsat images from 2002, 2008, 2013, 2018, and 2023 were applied. The vegetation indices (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), as well as the water indices (Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI)) were derived to detect the vegetation status and the surface water in the watershed. A total of six LCLU classes were recognized: water bodies, urban areas, forests, agricultural lands, light bare lands, and dark bare lands. The classification results revealed that the metropolitan and plant areas increased by 167.49% and 42.99%, respectively, from 2002 to 2023, while the water bodies reduced by 13.38%. Urban areas often experience higher LST_s compared to vegetated regions because of the effect of municipal warmness island. Additionally, bare lands and water bodies had the highest and lowest LST_s in that order. The highest and lowest NDVI and VCI values were 0.24 and 57.66% in 2023, 0.12 and 51.84% in 2008, respectively. The Dukan Reservoir represented 88.89% of the water bodies in 2002 and 82.86% in 2023, reflecting the continuous reduction in Iraq’s share of the basin’s water resources. The research’s conclusions can help legislators and decision-makers improve and implement rules for water resource management and sustainable rural development.</p>