Caputo fractional order modeling and analysis for the transmission dynamics of wheat yellow rust disease
摘要
Wheat is one of the most significant crops grown worldwide and serves as both an important source of food for consumers and a means of income for farmers. However, the fungus that causes wheat yellow rust (WYR) seriously damages the wheat production, especially in developing countries. One useful method for comprehending the patterns of transmission of WYR is fractional models, which are very helpful in capturing memory and nonlocality effects and in better predicting disease outbreaks. In this study, we develop and analyze a Caputo fractional order model for the transmission dynamics of wheat yellow rust (WYR). We perform different mathematical analysis to investigate the existence and uniqueness, positivity and boundedness of solutions, ensuring the epidemiological and well posedness of the model. A computation of the basic reproduction number was made using the next-generation matrix. The local stability analysis of the equilibrium points are verified. Additionally, a global stability analysis of the equilibrium points are established. The forward normalized sensitivity index is utilized to determine which factors are most sensitive and crucial for managing the disease. To verify the analytical result, a numerical simulation of the model was generated using the fractional Adam-Bashforth-Moulton method. A graphical illustration of the effects of some of the key model parameters on the spread of the WYR disease and its eradication is shown for a range of non-integer order values of the Caputo derivative. We conclude that using a fractional model improves awareness and offers better biological insights into the dynamics of WYR disease.