<p>Climate change mitigation resulting from rising temperatures represents one of humanity’s most pressing challenges, driven by rapid industrial expansion, urban development, substantial greenhouse gas emissions, and deforestation associated with urbanization. These factors collectively pose an unprecedented threat to environmental and climatic stability. Accurate air temperature forecasting has become essential due to the highly variable nature of temperature patterns across different geographical regions. Reliable temperature prediction capabilities can enhance the credibility of future environmental planning initiatives and support the maintenance of urban environmental sustainability and climate health. This research introduces residual correction (RC) based deep learning models, incorporating LSTM, BiLSTM, GRU, CNN, and RNN architectures. The methodology integrates a Genetic Algorithm (GA) for optimal ensemble formation, specifically through aggregation ensemble (AE) with equal weighting and regression-based ensemble (RE) approaches, resulting in the RC-GAAE and RC-GARE models, respectively. The RC-based deep learning models demonstrate substantial improvements over traditional approaches across multiple performance metrics. The average enhancement ranges include RMSE improvements of 76.82%–327.67%, MAE improvements of 64.25%–331.23%, MAPE improvements of 49.71%–319.72%, MSE improvements of 200.98%–1725.69%, and <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2617_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="19" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\hbox {R}^2\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> improvements of 1.97%–2.04%. The proposed RC-GAAE model further enhances RC-based deep learning performance, achieving improvements of 27.90%–225.02% in RMSE, 27.59%–250.49% in MAE, 188.59%–1303.37% in MSE, and 0.04%–0.79% in <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2617_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="19" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\hbox {R}^2\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Additionally, the proposed RC-GARE model demonstrates even greater enhancements over RC-based approaches, with RMSE improvements of 177.59%–595.65%, MAE improvements of 218.03%–595.65%, MSE improvements of 1303.37%–3429.86%, and <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="40808_2025_2617_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="19" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\hbox {R}^2\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> improvements of 0.06%–0.91%. The model effectiveness was further validated through comprehensive statistical significance testing, including AIC-BIC, Diebold-Mariano (DM), and Friedman Ranking analyses. The results conclusively establish the performance hierarchy as follows: RC-based deep learning models &lt; RC-GAAE &lt; RC-GARE, confirming the superior effectiveness of the proposed methodologies. This research contributes a robust framework for enhanced air temperature forecasting, with significant implications for climate change research and environmental management.</p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Residual correction with genetic algorithm regressive ensemble (RC-GARE) model for effective air temperature predictions of urban cities

  • Vipin Kumar

摘要

Climate change mitigation resulting from rising temperatures represents one of humanity’s most pressing challenges, driven by rapid industrial expansion, urban development, substantial greenhouse gas emissions, and deforestation associated with urbanization. These factors collectively pose an unprecedented threat to environmental and climatic stability. Accurate air temperature forecasting has become essential due to the highly variable nature of temperature patterns across different geographical regions. Reliable temperature prediction capabilities can enhance the credibility of future environmental planning initiatives and support the maintenance of urban environmental sustainability and climate health. This research introduces residual correction (RC) based deep learning models, incorporating LSTM, BiLSTM, GRU, CNN, and RNN architectures. The methodology integrates a Genetic Algorithm (GA) for optimal ensemble formation, specifically through aggregation ensemble (AE) with equal weighting and regression-based ensemble (RE) approaches, resulting in the RC-GAAE and RC-GARE models, respectively. The RC-based deep learning models demonstrate substantial improvements over traditional approaches across multiple performance metrics. The average enhancement ranges include RMSE improvements of 76.82%–327.67%, MAE improvements of 64.25%–331.23%, MAPE improvements of 49.71%–319.72%, MSE improvements of 200.98%–1725.69%, and \(\hbox {R}^2\) improvements of 1.97%–2.04%. The proposed RC-GAAE model further enhances RC-based deep learning performance, achieving improvements of 27.90%–225.02% in RMSE, 27.59%–250.49% in MAE, 188.59%–1303.37% in MSE, and 0.04%–0.79% in \(\hbox {R}^2\) . Additionally, the proposed RC-GARE model demonstrates even greater enhancements over RC-based approaches, with RMSE improvements of 177.59%–595.65%, MAE improvements of 218.03%–595.65%, MSE improvements of 1303.37%–3429.86%, and \(\hbox {R}^2\) improvements of 0.06%–0.91%. The model effectiveness was further validated through comprehensive statistical significance testing, including AIC-BIC, Diebold-Mariano (DM), and Friedman Ranking analyses. The results conclusively establish the performance hierarchy as follows: RC-based deep learning models < RC-GAAE < RC-GARE, confirming the superior effectiveness of the proposed methodologies. This research contributes a robust framework for enhanced air temperature forecasting, with significant implications for climate change research and environmental management.