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<p>Rock slope stability is a critical aspect of mining operations. This study presents a comparative analysis of deterministic and probabilistic approaches for rock slope stability assessment in a structurally complex open-pit mine in Ghana’s Tarkwaian formation. Detailed discontinuity mapping was conducted across five 30-meter windows (W1-W5) spanning 150&#xa0;m along the pit wall. Deterministic kinematic analysis using stereographic projections employed mean joint set parameters to evaluate failure mechanisms, while probabilistic analysis used Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations to address parameter variability and uncertainty through statistical distribution modeling. Joint sets were found to exhibit Normal, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions for dip angles and Normal distributions for dip directions. Results of the deterministic analysis showed planar failure risks of 14.29–100% across joint sets, and wedge sliding risks of 33.33–100%. Three windows showed negligible toppling failure risks while two showed 100% risks. The probabilistic analysis results produced planar failure risks ranging from 15.14 to 97.40% across the various windows, showing significant differences from deterministic results. Absolute differences between the two approaches ranged from 0.85 to 13.79%, with the greatest differences occurring in zones of high structural heterogeneity. The results clearly highlight the limitations of adopting deterministic approaches irrespective of the degree of structural heterogeneity in the rock mass. The study recommends the use of deterministic methods when the rock mass is homogeneous; for geologically complex situations, the probabilistic approach should be adopted in order to account for rock mass heterogeneity and parameter uncertainty.</p>

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Comparative rock slope stability assessment using deterministic and Monte Carlo-based probabilistic approaches in a Ghanaian open-pit mine

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月26日

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  • Mawuko Luke Yaw Ankah,
  • Akwesi Ofori Opoku,
  • Sylvanus Sebbeh-Newton,
  • Matebie Meten

摘要

Rock slope stability is a critical aspect of mining operations. This study presents a comparative analysis of deterministic and probabilistic approaches for rock slope stability assessment in a structurally complex open-pit mine in Ghana’s Tarkwaian formation. Detailed discontinuity mapping was conducted across five 30-meter windows (W1-W5) spanning 150 m along the pit wall. Deterministic kinematic analysis using stereographic projections employed mean joint set parameters to evaluate failure mechanisms, while probabilistic analysis used Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations to address parameter variability and uncertainty through statistical distribution modeling. Joint sets were found to exhibit Normal, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions for dip angles and Normal distributions for dip directions. Results of the deterministic analysis showed planar failure risks of 14.29–100% across joint sets, and wedge sliding risks of 33.33–100%. Three windows showed negligible toppling failure risks while two showed 100% risks. The probabilistic analysis results produced planar failure risks ranging from 15.14 to 97.40% across the various windows, showing significant differences from deterministic results. Absolute differences between the two approaches ranged from 0.85 to 13.79%, with the greatest differences occurring in zones of high structural heterogeneity. The results clearly highlight the limitations of adopting deterministic approaches irrespective of the degree of structural heterogeneity in the rock mass. The study recommends the use of deterministic methods when the rock mass is homogeneous; for geologically complex situations, the probabilistic approach should be adopted in order to account for rock mass heterogeneity and parameter uncertainty.